OBAMA HEATS UP ASIAN STOCK MARKETS: FISCAL CLIFF OK
MARRIAGE AND BONOMI TO PIRELLI. SEA TOWARDS THE IPO
Asia welcomes arrival of President Obama, today in Myanmar, with a robust rally in the markets.
Tokyo +1,65% flies, Hong Kong scores an increase of 0,7%. The rest of the continent follows with the most tonic session for two months now. Futures on the US stock market mark +0,5%.
A behavior in line with that of Wall Street at the end of the week, with the return of the Bull after a depressed session: Dow Jones +0,37, S&P +0,48% and Nasdaq +0,57%.
The week ended, however, with the umpteenth fall of the European Stock Exchanges. In Milan, the FtseMib index -2% recorded the ninth session of decline in the last 11 trading days. The performance of the week is a drop of 2,2% which brings the year-to-date balance to -1,5%. The stock exchanges of London and Paris fell by 1,2%, Frankfurt -1,3%. The markets closed their doors too early to record positive news.
The explanation of the rally is the sudden brightening on the fiscal cliff front. Yesterday evening, upon his arrival in Bangkok, the US president declared: "I am confident that we will be able to finalize an agreement soon", thus confirming the positive indications that had triggered the rise on Wall Street on Friday evening. At the end of the meeting, Congressional speaker John Boehne said he was open to the prospect of a tax increase, provided that it was accompanied in parallel by the same number of spending cuts.
ASIA
First effects of Xi Jingping's rise to power in Beijing: Chinese long-term bonds rise to a four-month high. “Traders – reads a report by Barclays – are convinced that the season of economic stimulus is over. Xi and Li Kequiang are determined to tolerate slower but more balanced growth. Hence the preference for the long part of the curve”.
A signal in this direction comes from the outgoing president of the Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan: “I think we are getting close to full convertibility of the yuan – he said on Saturday evening -. We must move in the direction of market deregulation”.
There are many ways to signal the buoyancy of the Asian economy. Among these is the business plan of Karex Industries of Malaysia, world leader in the production of latex for condoms, which has announced its intention to enter the stock exchange through a capital increase intended to double production within a year. "Demand from Asia is constantly growing", explains Goh Miah Kiat, the president who leads the company, which has been active in rubber plantations for over a century.
AMERICA
The stock of US government bonds held by China drops by 123 billion to 1.156 billion dollars. But the Washington Treasury, which revealed the data Friday night, isn't complaining. Over the last year, the inventories of other US debt customers have grown: Brazil, Belgium, Luxembourg, Russia, Switzerland, Taiwan and Hong Kong. In all, $264,8 billion was placed.
Today and Wal Street's attention will be focused on real estate market data, starting with the new construction index. The market is waiting for a confirmation of the improvements in the sector that prompted Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs to predict a full recovery for 2013, fiscal cliff permitting.
Even more relevant, at least from a psychological point of view, is the start of the Christmas campaign which will start, as usual, on Thanksgiving Day.
In recent weeks, those who have little to celebrate are the investors who bet on Apple in mid-September on the wave of the clamor for the launch of the iPhone 5. Since then, Apple shares have lost 26 percent, from $700 to $527. Hence the advice that rains a bit from all over Wall Street: a new buyback (but there are already 10 billion dollars in cash already allocated for this purpose and not used up to now) or a split of the share (less probable after the drop in quotations ). The most insistent pressure, however, concerns the possible increase in the dividend, now at $10,60 per share.
EUROPA
Il IMF managing director Christine Lagarde he gave up the summit on South East Asia in Cambodia in order not to miss the Eurogroup summit in Brussels, which tomorrow will seek an agreement on aid to Greece. The target? "Agree with Greece's creditors - he said at the start - a credible plan that is not based on unrealistic forecasts" for use by the electorate of the various countries (see German public opinion) . In short, a credible plan instead of the umpteenth solution for internal electoral use. In short, from tomorrow's meeting the Monetary Fund is waiting for Europe to finally put all the cards on the table on aid to Athens.
Great attention, therefore, for the speech he will give this morning Jens Weidmann, the hawk who presides over the Bundesbank.
Meanwhile, confirming the difficulties, comes the news that the Commission is preparing a double budget: with or without the contribution of Great Britain. The summit on the Community budget will take place on Thursday.
In terms of bond issues, the week looks calm: the main appointments concern Germany and Spain. Berlin will offer 4 billion 1-year bonds and XNUMX billion six-year bonds linked to EU inflation.
Madrid will issue short-term, 12- and 18-month bonds for an amount that should not exceed 5 billion (compared to 9 in October).
ITALY
This morning, amid not a few turbulences, the road show for the listing of Sea The shares of the company that manages the Milanese airports will be offered at a price between 3,2 and 4,3 euros for a value between "800 million and a maximum of 1.075 million euros". In reality, the banks in the consortium (Mediobanca, Intesa, Morgan Stanley, Unicredit, Paribas and Deutsche Bank) would have insisted on an estimate closer to 800 million, while Vito Gamberale, with the F2i fund holding a 29,7% share, had bought on a valuation of no less than 1,3 billion. We will see, at the end of the road show, what the price of the IPO will be. The prospectus for the landing at Piazza Affari highlights the pros and cons of the company. Not only the "classic" risks connected to the activities (non-development of connection infrastructures, increase in the cost of raw materials, competition and regulatory unpredictability), but also the appeals, the investigations by the European Commission up to the indebtedness weighing on the accounts this moment
Spotlight on Telecom Italy -4,6% on Friday on the wave of rumors, then denied on the halt to the network spin-off project and subsequent sale of a share to Cassa depositi e prestiti.
The group, however, wanted to clarify that "the analyzes and insights the results of which will be presented to the board of directors on 6 December are still underway by the management and the advisors", the same one in which the offer presented by Naguib Sawiris.
Great attention also for the galaxy Pirelli-Camfin. Over the weekend, negotiations between Tronchetti's lawyers and the representatives of Clessidra and Investindustrial continued to the bitter end, the two private companies that appear destined to support the Pirelli chairman in the delicate operation of disengaging from the Malacalzas.
Possible brightening for banks, after Friday's decline, conditioned by uncertainties on the fiscal cliff: Unicredit fell by 3,2%, Understanding-3,1% MontePaschi -2,6%. Mediobanca it lost 3,6%. Pop. Milano suffered a fall of 5,2%. It is interesting to verify this morning the possible repercussions of the episode of Report dedicated to the management of Ponzellini.
StM ended up down by 2%: according to rumors, the board rejected the plan to separate the company into two entities, one dedicated to chips for digital applications and the other for analog applications. The Stock Exchange had been betting on this operation for some time.
More relevant data on Friday. The decreases of. also contributed to ballast Piazza Affari Eni -1,6% ed Enel -2,2%. Heavy downside of Erg -4,5%. Trevi lost 9,9%,
Among the industrialists, Finmeccanica it lost 2,5% despite Morgan Stanley raising the target price on the stock to 4 euros from 3,5.
Fiat is down 1%. Exor lost 3,9% after Goldman Sachs took action on the holding company controlled by the Agnelli family, lowering the rating to neutral da buy.
Among the mid caps, Mayor Tecnimont it collapsed down by 22% to 0,343 euros. Yesterday the management announced an upcoming capital increase without giving any details on the amount.
