Of the four orphaned sisters of the last eliminated, Holland, the next that should end up in the formidable sights of the rating agency Standard & Poor's (which just yesterday confirmed Italy's score to the BBB) is Finland.
The economy of the Scandinavian country, the only European to still enjoy triple A together with Germany, Austria and Luxembourg, reflects the crisis of its best-known company, Nokia, and is preparing for a "new glacial winter", according to the metaphor used by the Nordea bank itself to summarize Finland's prospects.
After all, the data from the central bank of Helsinki speak for themselves: the sick man of Scandinavia, as he is beginning to be defined, will see its GDP decrease by 2013% in 1, against the 0,8% previously estimated, and above all the recovery announced in 2014 will be weak, even more than expected: +0,6% instead of +0,7%.
The excuse of the crisis of the European partners which would justify the drop in exports, on which the economic system has been based for some time, holds up only partially: if it is true that the slowdown in Russia's growth represents an objective brake on exports, it is also realistic what was communicated by the central bank itself, according to which "in addition to the negative effects of the international recession, the economy is also feeling the effects of a difficult industrial restructuring, the increase in the cost of living and the aging of the population".
Not to mention the unemployment, which is growing dangerously towards the 9% threshold: from 7,7% in 2012, the rate is already at 8,1% this year and according to Nordea experts it will rise to at least 8,5% in 2014. Hard times therefore for “Nokialand”, precisely in the days in which Brussels gave the green light to the gigantic operation which will see the telephone company, market leader between the 90s and 2000s, cross the Atlantic and move into hands of the giant Microsoft for the sum of 5 billion euros.
However, if Athens weeps, Sparta does not laugh. Finland will also be at risk of losing the S&P's triple A, but even the thriving economy of neighboring Sweden no longer sails on the usual standards of excellence. In fact, Stockholm too is suffering from the export crisis, despite a very advantageous currency exchange: the euro is exchanged at 9,05 crowns, the minimum for 18 months. Furthermore, unemployment grew by 0,1% in November, reaching the threshold of 8% of the active population. Not exactly comforting signs, though at the moment Sweden has rejected the recession: in 2013 its GDP still grew by 1%, and the 2014 recovery is expected to be much stronger than the European average, with +2,4%.
