The 2007 presidential elections in France. Nicolas Sarkozy, alias the human and modern face of the European right, was then capable of breaking taboos. To talk about job flexibility, in the country of the "safe place" par excellence. To invoke a streamlining of public administration, in the most bureaucratic state in Europe. He even became the spokesperson for ecological demands: a première for the neo-Gaullists of the UMP, his party, with its rigid, antiquated image.
Just five years ago. But it seems like an era has passed. Now that Sarkò is grappling with the new campaign (we are two weeks away from the first round), the scenario has changed radically. He has lost his former audacity because he has kept so few promises. And today's France, with unemployment close to 10%, a public deficit of 5,2% of GDP at the end of 2011 and accelerated deindustrialisation, also in favor of Germany, does not offer much margin. He, Sarkozy, reacts with the weapons of demagoguery. For some weeks now he has been taking it out on immigrants ("The French social model - he declared - would not be able to withstand new influxes of foreigners. At a certain moment we must say, worried about the balance of social protection accounts, that we cannot welcome everyone" ). Forgetting that the net contribution of non-EU citizens to the welfare state is positive: they pay more than they receive. And for pensions and medical assistance much more than the natives. They are the ones who finance the early retirees…
Demagogy, more demagogy. When he finally presented his economic program last Thursday, much later than his rival, François Hollande, he heated up a "precooked soup", a series of measures in reality already announced or already launched by his government. The only real novelty was the advance on the first of each month of the payment of the pension instead of the 8, "to make up for a real injustice", our dixit ... In the previous days, while the Oats, the French government bonds , if they carried it badly on the markets, he had already made some "decisive" promises. Like reducing the cost of obtaining a driving licence. Or provide that teachers can work longer hours than expected, in exchange for a substantial salary increase. In short, epochal turning points…
Sarkozy also stressed on Thursday that "between raising taxes and reducing public spending, I choose the second option." He foresees a return to balance in the public finances in 2016, like Hollande. But the Institut de l'enterprise, a liberal-leaning think tank, financed by large French groups, generally very well disposed towards conservative politicians, while not contesting the figures proposed by the socialist candidate, instead has serious doubts about the sustainability of the program by Sarkozy. He points the finger precisely at the new measures announced during the election campaign, which alone would require additional funding of 12 billion by 2016. It is not clear where they come from. And regardless of those, 3,4 billion additional revenues expected (40 in all) again by 2016 would be “inexplicable. And they would represent hidden tax increases, not disclosed at the present time.”
Having said all this, it is by no means certain that Sarkozy will lose. Indeed, the latest demagogic injections into his official discourse have only done him good. He has risen in the polls, so much so that he increasingly appears in the lead in the race, ahead of Hollande, in the first round. To the second, however, for the moment he is still the socialist candidate to prevail, although the gap between the two is narrowing. The games are on, because many remain those who for the moment do not intend to go to vote: the abstentionists, the "first party in France", as it is now defined. According to the most recent survey by Ifop, one of the most reliable institutes, it would be 32% of the electorate. They are more numerous in the lower social classes and particularly in the urban suburbs. In short, the young people of the banlieues. How little they listen to the projections of economists. And they don't read the detailed analyzes of Le Monde. Right there, in the suburbs, Sarkozy, in 2007, managed to attract numerous voters and generate a decisive turning point with respect to Ségolène Royal in the race for the Elysée.
His recovery lags far behind then. But everything is still possible. Hollande, meanwhile, who wants at all costs to present himself as the "serious" of the situation, the man of rigor, distant from the spendthrift tradition of the French left, when it was in power in the past, exaggerates in this sense too, reducing everything to cuts to public spending, not talking (he too, like Sarkozy) about some important challenges for his country, such as that of job flexibility. On the proactive side, his aspirations are increasingly reduced: he planned to invest eight billion in the "contrats de génération", new contracts in which the seniors would have to follow the new hires as tutors (and the company would pay much less than social security contributions). But by dint of cuts to justify the reduction of the public deficit, his forecasts have already dropped to two billion. Meanwhile, the rival compensates with blows of demagoguery. And of more or less false figures. Two weeks is still a long time.
