“The key to the latest Libyan events is Jalloud. His sudden escape to Rome is not accidental and, for once, testifies to the good work of Italy, the Farnesina and above all of our secret services, in the convulsive Libyan events. Jalloud is the only Libyan leader well regarded by the rebels and he is the only one who can attempt the miracle of keeping Libya united”. Giulio Sapelli, Professor of Economic History at the State University of Milan and a great expert on oil issues for having served on the Eni board of directors and still sits on the scientific council of the Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation, knows Libya well and has very clear ideas on what is happening and what could happen after the fall of Gaddafi. Here's what he told Firstonline.
FIRSTONLINE – Professor, Ambassador Sergio Romano, in his editorial in the Corriere della Sera, writes today that Libya is a "strange war without winners": Do you agree?
KNOW – No, I don't think so. The Libyan war is strange but there are winners.
FIRSTONLINE And who are they exactly?
KNOW – The international powers – Europe and the USA – who have intervened in support of the civilian populations. But, for once, it must be recognized that Italy too emerges victorious from the latest Libyan events.
FIRSTONLINE - In what sense?
KNOW – For the flight to Rome of Abdel Salam Jalloud, who was a fellow soldier and student of Gaddafi and then for a long time his number 2 but who then withdrew from political life due to differences with the Colonel and who had lived since 93 isolated in a villa near Tripoli. For the rebels Jalloud is an essential point of reference. This time the Farnesina and our secret services had a nose and moved very skilfully and very promptly. Jalloud's arrival in Rome is crucial.
FIRSTONLINE – But the whole world is wondering about the transition. Who will now govern Tripoli?
KNOW – This is the crucial point. Libya's unity has always been very artificial. It seems unlikely that the post-Gaddafi can take place under the monarchy of Idris al Senussi, the homonymous nephew of the king deposed by Gaddafi 42 years ago. Idris has good relations with the rebels, who however will hardly be able to accept the return to the monarchy for Libya. Of course, the rapidity of recent events can steer the course of history in one direction or another.
FIRSTONLINE – Many observers maintain that even the unity of the rebels is fictitious and that the various tribes will not be able to come to an agreement: do you think the hypothesis of a split of Libya into two or three parts is real?
KNOW – Certainly the rift of Libya is a possible hypothesis, but I think it is necessary to reflect on at least three facts.
1) the particular role that Fezzan will play between Tripoli and Benghazi, precisely the area on the border with Chad that is close to Sarkozy's heart because it is the gateway to central Africa.
2) the Libyan tribes are no longer what they once were, they too have somehow modernized and even their leaders send their children to study abroad as Gaddafi did. These tribes in recent years have continued to do business in the shadows and have formed a sort of parallel nomenclature waiting for the fall of the regime.
3) as I said before, a first-rate element for reading and decoding Libyan events is the role that Jalloud will play. He is the only one who can perform the miracle of reuniting and holding all the pieces of Libya together.
FIRSTONLINE – How will relations between the new Libya or new Libyas and Italy evolve?
KNOW – I am reasonably optimistic, especially in the light of the Jalloud case and I think our relations with the Libyans will intensify.
FIRSTONLINE – And what do you foresee for ENI and Libyan oil supplies to Italy?
KNOW – I don't think there are any major problems, except for the need to verify that all systems are fully operational again. Eni has once again been far-sighted and has already prepared for the aftermath of Gaddafi by initiating the necessary contacts with the rebels. It is no coincidence that the markets have already noticed this.
