The observation of the Germany on the part of the European Community has warmed the spirits on the debate on European imbalances. In fact, it is a decision that indicates a change in the attitude of the European Union, all the more so since it was taken while in Germany, following the federal elections, the doubts and fears of German citizens about the euro have not died down, wary of many decisions taken in Brussels or Frankfurt (not least the ECB's decision to cut rates).
This is why the European Commission resorted to all possible tact, specifying: "We believe that if there were to be a structural imbalance, it would be in Germany's own interest to correct it". But, is the message, the problem of imbalances for the stability of the Eurozone is unavoidable and must be addressed. Not only when it concerns the lack of Italian growth and the increase in poverty, but also when it focuses on the surplus of a growing country. Because all of international trade is at stake.
“Well, the EU Commission, incredible but true, has noticed all this. A true miracle”, commented Sapelli in an editorial in today's Messaggero entitled “Finally it's official, the problem is Berlin”. As Sapelli recalled, "the tensions in the euro area are fueled by important structural imbalances relating to the growth potential of the economies and one of the salient aspects of the issue is represented by the deficits in the external accounts".
In other words, Germany exports too much to the detriment not only of its domestic market, which is not growing enough, but also to the detriment of the external and internal markets of other European countries as well. “If we had national currencies, the problem would exist as competition from German goods on world markets”, Sapelli explains in the editorial where he explains why the situation is more serious with a single currency. In the first place, the competitor country cannot recover what it loses "neither with competitive devaluations nor by turning to the internal market".
Furthermore, "the game of exports is zero-sum, that is, it causes unemployment in countries with deficits in terms of the trade balance and affects growth". Deciding to open an investigation to "establish whether the excessive German trade surplus, combined with low domestic demand, has a negative impact on the performance of the European economy, penalizing the exports of other member countries" thus means wanting to open your eyes. The Commission's move from Sapelli is defined as "amazing" and in his opinion is the consequence of the open conflict between the USA and Germany. In any case, this should not distract us from looking at the imbalances in our own country as well. Although in recent days other positive news has arrived for Italy (such as the leak of a position of the Commission in favor of the Stability Law and Merkel's openness to policies to support youth employment). "However, this positive news should not be misunderstood", warns Marcello Messori in an editorial in today's Corriere della Sera, entitled "The pitiful illusion of the numbers in order".
Already because the Commission has reiterated that it is necessary to keep the Italian situation under careful control due to the growing social exclusion, the problems on the competitiveness of companies, the excessive tax burden, to name just a few of the issues. "Recent years - writes Messori - have shown that it is illusory to seek a way out of this grip by simply reducing public spending flows". The problems on the table that Messori recalls are well known: growth is impossible if young people have to emigrate because they are left on the sidelines, if the nucleus of companies capable of winning in international competition is not imitated by a growing number of companies and therefore has no macroeconomic impact, to name but a few. Messori concludes: “The policy agenda, which would pave the way for change, is easy to define even if it is difficult to implement. But maintenance is not enough to free Italy from a grip that condemns it to decline despite the favorable but contingent European breeze”.
