Cristina Kirchner's victory in last Sunday's Argentine elections was largely taken for granted, but the analysis of the medium and long-term effects of the vote is much less obvious. And even less obvious are the answers of a profound connoisseur of the Argentine reality such as Giulio Sapelli, full professor of Economic History at the state university of Milan. Here's what he told FIRSTonline.
FIRST online – Professor Sapelli, what were the strengths that allowed Cristina Kirchner to win the Argentine elections once again?
Sapelli – The merit of the “President” lies in having managed to make the most of the contradictions that have opened up within Argentina, through the pillar of Peronist verticalism. First with one welfare policy from above, based on extensive taxation of export commodities and a redistribution of the resources thus obtained to the poorest classes; then it has checked the governors and raised the flag of the human rights (the “abuelas de Plaza de Mayo” are among Cristina's staunchest supporters). Yet this policy, which has blown everyone away, has led the economy almost on the brink of a second crisis. Inflation has skyrocketed, state coffers have emptied and relations with the International Monetary Fund continue to be tense. And this demonstrates that Cristina's populist politics were extremely risky. Social policies have been possible thanks to the boom in commodity prices, above all soy and meat.
FIRST online – At the level of economic policy, is the protectionism we are witnessing in Argentina sustainable in the long term?
Sapelli – In the long term it is not sustainable: a crisis in the commodity market is enough and the Government would have to invent another way to finance its enormous public spending. And, if we consider the impossibility of appearing on international stock exchanges, it would not be an entirely immediate solution. But in the short term it can work. If Argentina, reassured by the similar behavior adopted by neighboring Brazil, continues on the line of protectionism, the idea put forward by the "Plan happy“: one neo-industrialization”into“, even with the intervention of the state, the so-called import substitution to rebuild the domestic industry. And if it continues on this path, with a protected industry, in the isolation of the world financial system and trying to increase exports (to increase revenue), it will be difficult for this great growth to be transformed into development.
FIRST online – Will the future Minister of the Economy be able to change the fate of Cristina's economic policy?
Sapelli - I do not believe. Cristina will continue to hold power in her hands. Centralism is another of the characteristics of the Peronism that has characterized Argentina in recent decades. It will be more relevant to see who he appoints as Minister of Industry and Agriculture to understand the path that the country's neo-industrialization policy will follow.
FIRST online – Professor, why can't a strong opposition be created in Argentina?
Sapelli – The fairer question would be: why isn't an opposition as strong as it used to be? After the military dictatorship (1976 - 1983) we saw an imperfect bipolarity in the South American country. And Peronism has been ruling uninterruptedly for more than 20 years. Yet it is a Peronism that has changed face several times: embracing the liberal policies of Menem up to the populism (almost in a Christian Democrat sauce we would say) of Cristina Kirchner. However it is important to note that it is reborn a socialist movement and took no less than 13% of the vote. The candidate Hermes Binner, despite having lost the elections for the governor of the Santa Fé region (overtaken by the Peronist candidate), has created, on the model “Uruguayan“, a new socialist party, a movement that hadn't had much success since the turn of the century. It is interesting to note that the electorate of this party, in addition to the middle-intellectual class who have never voted Peronist, is also made up peasants and workers who dispute the high taxation on commodities and demand the creation of social housing.
