With the continuous attacks of the Italian Government in Brussels and the approach of the EU infringement procedure against our country, we are once again talking about “Italexit”, i.e. the possibility of Italy leaving the euro. But is the return to the lira really a realistic prospect? We asked the economist Luke Paolazzi, partner of REF Ricerche and former director of the Confindustria Study Centre.
“The Governor of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, argues that the mere idea that a country can leave the Eurozone makes you smile – Paolazzi explains – And this is not only because it would be very expensive economically and socially, but also because on an institutional level it would be a very complex process and in any case difficult to imagine. There is no one who has a plan B like this".
It is true that in the past Greece it came close, but “not so much because the Greeks wanted to leave – recalls Paolazzi – but because at a certain point the other European partners had decided to get rid of Athens. But let's keep in mind that Greece is a small country, which produces just 2% of the GDP of the whole euro area. Italy, on the other hand, is too big a country to be saved, but also too big to let it fail".
Having said this, the economist points out that "investors are afraid of the instability that has arisen and therefore protect themselves from this risk". Ultimately, therefore, “more than a risk on the debt denomination front, at the moment there is a great danger of debt restructuring".
In addition to those on "Italexit", Paolazzi also answers other questions in the video interview:
- Italy is the only country in the Eurozone where the cost of debt exceeds the growth rate: how do you explain?
- Whether or not the Troika arrives, a corrective maneuver now seems inevitable. We have to expect a patrimonial one?
- Le early elections Would they be a risk or an opportunity for Italy?
