Gasoline inventories on the American East Coast are at risk of declining at its lowest level since 1990 thanks to Sandy, the hurricane that forced the suspension of refining and distribution in a large area of the United States. The scenario that presents itself after the passage of the hurricane must also address this problem, in addition to the drama of the victims, the balance of the destruction, the discomfort of the cities and countryside affected.
There is currently no perceived shortage of fuel, but some backlash could occur later. On the American markets, the first impact was substantially linear: the many closed refineries have caused a reduction in the demand for crude oil, causing its prices to fall (but only in New York, not across the Atlantic), and instead supported the prices of refined products, from petrol to diesel. In these hours, with the commitment to restore life to normal, fuels are essential, but the amount consumed remains low due to numerous roadblocks. Thus the price of petrol at the pump, according to the calculations of the American Automobile Association, is stabilizing for the moment, after the jump of 5,9% in three days.
However, the paralysis of over 8 million inhabitants will not last long. Then the concern will concern the decline in inventories. For these reasons, the swing in gasoline prices in the US promises rather large movements. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, short-dated futures rallied 23% in the third quarter, then fell 19% in the first 26 days of October, before climbing again, 5-6%. In the area affected by Sandy, the refining capacity is estimated at 1,29 million barrels of crude oil per day and the closures involved 1,22 million, almost all. It remains to understand the duration of the stops, which will obviously be decided only after the damages have been ascertained.
Meanwhile, in the US The average price of gasoline at the pump was $3,534 a gallon Tuesday, the lowest for almost three months (the highest point of the year was recorded in the first days of April, at $3,936) and the pre-Sandy trend was still downwards. Of what will happen in the coming weeks, something more can be understood from the weekly statistics on US commercial inventories of crude oil and derivatives. But we will have to wait for those that will be published on November 7, not those that will be released tomorrow. Indeed, the November 1 figures will refer to inventories counted at the end of last week, before the storm.
