The stock market flies and the spread drops, but it's not time for Italy to rejoice. The loan to Spanish banks announced on Saturday by the Eurogroup will cost. And even if the markets are celebrating for the moment, in Via XX Settembre the Treasury technicians are working to understand how much more money our country will have to raise.
An exact estimate is not yet possible, because the terms of the agreement that should save Madrid from implosion will only be defined at the Ecofin meeting on 20-21 June. But there is already talk of worrying numbers: by the end of the year, between funds to be disbursed and loans to be guaranteed, the bill could exceed 48 billion euros, as indicated by the Corriere della Sera. Just a year ago the Italian share had stopped at 9,2 billion, 0,6% of GDP.
First of all, a preliminary distinction must be made between the two European state-saving funds, the Efsf (already operational, but temporary) e Esm (permanent, but active since July). Despite the name, the first is not a traditional fund, because it does not have its own resources: the member states provide guarantees that allow for the issue of bonds and, once these bonds have been placed on the market, the funds obtained are transferred to economies in difficulty . The guarantees provided are accounted for by Eurostat in public debts, which is not the case for loans granted through the ESM.
The replacement of the EFSF will function as a normal fund, with its own liquidity, to which Italy will have to contribute with 5,6 billion in two installments. It is evident how decisive the choice of the instrument to be used for the rescue of Spain is. For the moment, Brussels seems to be oriented towards the ESM. In any case, this year our country will have to finance Greece, Ireland and Portugal for 29,5 billion through EFSF.
