The stock market recovers, then slows down. From up to 20.870, Milano (+0,55%) reduced the rise to 20.670 points in line with the uncertainties on the maneuver front. Then, at 13 pm, a new recovery: +0,9% to 20.751. News arriving from the yellow-green majority dictated the market agenda in real time again this morning: an uphill start after, source Lega, the majority let it be known that the deficit could fall from the 2,4% target in the next few years. But Luigi Di Maio corrected the course: "It must be a real maneuver by the people - he said - if the deficit is lowered in 2020 and 2021 we will be even happier, but everything we have always promised to the Italians must remain, otherwise we will not it makes sense to move forward”. After these statements, the spread went back up to over 300 points.
Little move Paris (+0,07%), preceded by Madrid (+ 0,16%). Frankfurt leaves 0,4% on the ground.
In slight progress London (+0,35%) despite the disappointing IPO of Aston Martin. The house of James Bond's car came to lose up to 6,5% on the first day of trading in the City, after the price was set at £19 per share at the end of the IPO (based on an initial price range of 17,5-22,5 pounds). The group debuted with a valuation equal to approximately 23,6 times the Ebitda, higher than that of Ferrari -0,1%, which trades at 22,2 times Ebitda. Also down the chain Tesco (-8%) after the accounts for the quarter.
Government bonds fluctuate. The ten-year BTP had strengthened, to 3,31% yield (-13 basis points), the two-year is at 1,20% (-25 basis points). Then the new tack, probably not the last of a day that promises to be long. At 12 the gap is 30. This morning the Treasury The Treasury assigned 295 billion euros of the BTP in exchange on 2,131 September 2028 with a 4,75% coupon, out of a maximum amount of 2,5 billion.
Big investors take a position on Italian debt: UBS recommends buying the two-year BTP, as the rating agencies, from which a rating cut must be expected, should confirm the investability judgment on Italian debt. The Swiss bank remains cautious on the five- and ten-year BTPs.
THEresearch office of Confindustria he sees a slowdown in Italian economic growth for the two-year period 2018-2019 and fears the risk that the European Commission will open an infringement procedure on the new deficit targets announced by the Lega-M5s government.
The GDP is estimated at +1,1% this year (from 1,3% in June) and at +0,9% in 2019 (from +1,1%). The CSC sees the deficit/GDP ratio at 1,8% of GDP (from 1,9%) this year and estimates a trend level of 2% (from 1,4%) in 2019, incorporating the lack of increase in the VAT. The new framework assumes higher interest expenditure of 1,3 billion in 2018 and 3,2 in 2019, due to an average rate of 3% on 10-year BTPs.
Banks drop from their highs due to the widening of the spread. The Italian basket index marks +0,4%, after an opening up of more than 3%; Sector Stoxx up 0,5%. Well the most penalized institutes in the last few sessions like Bank Ifis (+4,60%); in the afternoon there will be a press conference. Bpm bank +2,25%: Berenberg downgraded the rating to 'hold' from 'sell' and says the stock is cheap but not yet attractive.
In the business square Tim is up 1%. The company has spent 2,407 billion euros to secure frequencies for 5G telephony, the impact on debt is about half a billion. The tender for 5G frequencies ended with revenues for the State of 6,55 billion euros, 4,55 billion more than expected. Mediaset + 1,5%.
Little move Fiat Chrysler (-0,15%). Sales of cars and light commercial vehicles in Brazil are expected to grow by 11,9% in 2018 compared to the previous year, to approximately 2,431 million units, according to the association of dealers Fenabrave, thus revising the projection upwards announced in July (+9,7%).
A sharp rise Recordati (+2,9%): the company asked a pool of banks for lines of credit for approximately 500 million euro in view of possible acquisitions.
Astaldi (+8%) rebounds after the collapse of the last few sessions. The company has requested an arrangement with creditors.
