FROM CHINA AND JAPAN LATEST ON US DEBT
PIAZZA AFFARI LIKES THE CLOSE ON THE MPS PLAN
I Asian lists, after an initial loss, they recovered and are starting to close in positive territory: Tokyo +0,4%, Hong Kong +1%.
The East, therefore, is betting on an agreement in extremis between Congress and the White House. Less optimism emerges from the US newspapers: according to the Washington Post there is room for a temporary agreement, to avoid the default of October 17th. But for "peace" there is no more time.
Wall Street acknowledged that the situation is serious: Dow Jones -0,9%, same change for Standard & Poor's, Nasdaq -1%.
In this frame it starts tonight the quarterly season: as usual, Alcoa will make its debut, but the first significant tests will take place on Friday with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Earnings growth expectations for have undergone a massive downsizing, going from 5.7% earnings growth to 2% (Citigroup data).
WORLD BANK: ASIA HOLDS BACK
China and Japan, the two largest creditors of the US Treasury, do not hide their concerns. Beijing's Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao warned that "time is running out" and that Washington will have to guarantee "respect for Chinese investments". Similar nervousness in Tokyo, already irritated by Obama's lack of presence at the APEC summit: a default, said the finance minister, would have devastating effects on the dollar and, consequently, on the strengthening of the yen. Government minister Abe also recalled that the previous tug of war on the debt cost the US debt the loss of triple A.
Meanwhile, Asia slows down. According to the World Bank, growth in the “Eastern Asia” area is forecast at +7,1% in 2013 and at 7,2% in 2014 against respectively +7,8% and +7,6% indicated in April. As for China, the World Bank estimates growth of 7,5% in 2013 and 7,7% in 2014. Data that compare respectively with +8,3% and +8% indicated in April.
BUT PIAZZA AFFARI THE RALLY GOES ON
In Europe they closed in the red dax 30 German backlog of 0,36%, the Ftse 100 by 0,26% and theIbex 35 by 0,41%. The Parisian is almost unchanged Cac + 0,03%.
The magnificent exception, once again, is Piazza Affari, on the run despite the difficulties of the economy and public finance. Yesterday the Milan Stock Exchange confirmed its place in the pink jersey in the OECD area list race. The Ftse Mib reversed course in the second part of the session and closed up 0,66% at 18.425 points after having managed to break through 18.300 points.
How long can the rally last? From a technical point of view, the final rise suggests that the rise can continue this morning too: the first obstacle will be at 18.600, then the Bull could reach 19.500.
Meanwhile, in Treasury Auction Week, the Btp/Bund differential remained stable throughout the day at 249 basis points with a yield on the Italian 4,29-year bond at XNUMX%
IN MILAN IT'S TIME FOR THE BIG BANK
The rally of the Italian Stock Exchange it can largely be explained by the rise in banking stocks: eight Italian banks are in the top ten places in the Stoxx index of European banks. In addition to Montepaschi, Unicredit, Banco Popolare, Pop, Emilila Romagna, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca, Ubi, Pop. Milan.
To lead the race, finally, there is Mount Paschi +6,26% pending the plan which was illustrated in the late afternoon, with the Stock Exchange closed.
The institute will cut about 8.000 employees by 2017 to reduce personnel costs by approximately 500 million. The pre-2015 goal was 4.600 employees. The number of branches to be closed also increases: from 400 they rise to 550. Top management fees have been cut: the ceiling agreed with Brussels is 500 euros (the CEO Viola collected around 1,5 million last year ). The plan estimates a profit of around 900 million in 2017 with a profitability measured by the rote of 9%. The plan envisages a commitment to repay 3 billion euro of Monti Bonds (70% of the total of 4,1 billion) by 2014, the year in which the 2,5 billion recapitalization will have to start.
In great evidence the Popular.
the Governor of Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco he reiterated yesterday that for large cooperative banks the most appropriate legal form is the "joint company".
Shop on Ubi + 4,6% Banco Popolare + 3,68% Bper + 2,31% bpm + 0,76%.
In the meantime, it continues the Unicredit rally + 2,7% reaching 5,37 euro, a new high since December 2011.
Last week closed with a positive performance of nearly +10%.
FINMECCANICA LEADS THE TOP STARS
Finmeccanica it closed up 3,5% at 5,415 euros.
Analysts JP Morgan have raised the rating on the stock to neutral from underweight with a target price of 4,95 euros from 3,45 euros. Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to a buy from hold.
Datalogic it is on the tenth consecutive rise with a gain of 5,4% to 7,85 euros. During the day, the stock updated the historical highs reached in 2012 at 8,095 euros. The market considers the objectives indicated by the company during the presentation of the new 2013-2015 business plan at the end of September to be credible.
Wdf is also among the best on the list +5,75% to 8,275 euros: in a report on the comparable Dufry, Vontobel analysts underline how the listing of the company as a spin-off entity “will bring more investors to this interesting market. Since the sector is very fragmented, M&A will continue to play a primary role”.
Up too Fonsai +2,75% on the day in which the bankruptcy arrangement request for Imco, one of the two private holding companies of the Ligresti family declared bankrupt in June 2012, was filed with the bankruptcy court of Milan.
Pirelli also did well on the Ftse Mib +2,17%: Mediobanca Securities has raised its recommendation on the stock from neutral to outperform and its target price from 8,8 to 12 euros in view of the new industrial plan which will be presented on 6 November. According to experts, it will aim to double EBIT again to around 1,3 billion by 2017.
The group Fonsai-Milan Insurance, now controlled by Unipol, will waive credits of 348,5 million euro from Imco, the Ligresti family company.
LUXURY AND TELECOM, THE BLACK JERSEYS
Telecom Italy -1,72% at risk of being downgraded by Standard & Poor's by the end of November. The rating agency announced that it had placed Telecom Italia's BBB-/A-3 ratings on negative creditwatch and the 'downgrade to BB+ appears to be the most probable result with the conclusion of the checks by the end of November 2013'. According to S&P, Telecom is suffering from the growing weakness of management and governance after the resignation last Thursday of the executive chairman Franco Bernabe'. In addition, the company faces a highly competitive domestic environment, has a weak credit rating due to its current valuation, and has limited ability to accelerate deleveraging or stabilize operating performance in the near term.
Also at the end of the price list Campari -1,9%, which has seen some profit-taking in light of possible increases in alcohol taxes.
In pain too luxury stocks after the World Bank's warning on the growth of emerging Asian countries.
Angela Ahrens, CEO of Burberry-1,85%, said the slowdown in China's luxury goods sales may not be temporary and could instead represent a new trend.
Salvatore Ferragamo it retreats by 0,4% to 26,18 euros. At the start of the session, it set a new historical record at 26,40 euros. Tod's lost 1,52%, Luxottica -1,56%, Brunello Cucinelli -0,04% almost unchanged at 23,91 euros.
