RECORD EXPORT +12% PUSHES TOKYO. THE SPREAD CHALLENGES THE 230bps BARRIER
Japanese exports have never been so brilliant +12,2% since July 2010. Imports also rose +19,6%, due to the high level of oil prices, but the news does not disturb the optimism of the Tokyo Stock Exchange: +0,30% approx. Even futures on the S&P, up slightly, suggest a positive start to the week, despite the tensions on interest rates.
On Wall Street last week, the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 2,1%, the biggest drop since June 21st. The Dow Jones fared worse -2,2% (worst drop since June 2012). In particular, last Friday the three major New York listings posted losses of between 1,4 and 1,7%.
Different script in Europe. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index has rallied 10 percent since the beginning of July, against 5 percent by Standard & Poor's in New York. The race is led by Milan and Madrid: the east, for now, has brought a rise of more than 16 percent as a gift. In the four sessions of the week of August 2,8th, the FtseMib index rose by 8,6%, bringing the year-to-date performance to +XNUMX%.
RATES/1. ONE MONTH LEFT TO TAPERING
Meanwhile, bond yields have risen again. The 7-year bond rose 2,83 basis points to 25 percent on Friday. During the week, the increase was 30 basis points. In particular, the performance of the T-21 is impressive. The thirty-year bond grew by 3,85 points to XNUMX%: the increase has been one percentage point since May.
At this point the obligatory question is: will the Bull that has been swimming on Wall Street since 2009 (150% rise) be able to float among the waves of rising rates? This is the question that holds sway in the US Bora, now resigned to tapering, i.e. the cut in purchases by the central bank which could take place in exactly one month: in fact, the monthly meeting of the Fed will end on 19 September, which could kick off the cuts.
Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke is silent. For years, the meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, organized by the Kansas City Fed has been the most awaited appointment for understanding the intentions of central bankers, starting with the Federal Reserve and the ECB. But this time, at the meeting to be held next Thursday and Friday, Ben Bernanke's speech has not yet been scheduled.
If confirmed, the absence of the top management of the Fed will appear in the eyes of the markets as further confirmation of the tapering. In the meantime, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting in mid-July will be published the day before.
RATES 2. THE BUND RISES, THE SPREAD FALLS
Meanwhile, Europe wonders: where will the rise in yield stop. The yield on German Bunds rises under the impetus of the German economic recovery ) The 1,87-year bond went up on Friday to 21% (2012 basis points more), the highest since December 2,50 on the wave of positive data on confidence and GDP growth . The trend seems destined to last: various research offices (including Mizuho) probable a return of around 2014% at the end of XNUMX.
The phenomenon has made possible a significant reduction in the spreads within the euro area: the BTP/Bund spread fell below 240 bp, while the Spain/Germany spread fell below 250 for the first time in the last two years. note that, over the last week. The yield of the BTP remained unchanged at 4,18%, higher than the lows reached in early May at 3,84% for the ten-year and 2,94% for the six years.
RATES 3. GOLD SHINES AGAIN
Even gold is awaiting confirmation, after a brilliant week: Prices rose by 4,5% to 1371. The rally continued this morning in Tokyo (+0,71%). The majority of experts on the Bloomberg panel (13 against 5 plus 4 neutral) are betting that the rally is bound to continue up to $1,450.
The rise of the yellow metal is striking because it comes after the massive sales of hedges, starting with that of John Paulson. But the purchases come from Emerging Countries in particular from Turkey, India and China. Contributes to the trend is the increase in inflation and the decline of local stock exchanges (and the crisis of the rupee).
SUPERSTAR BANKS IN THE MARKET PLACE
The decline in the spread gave strength to the Italian Stock Exchange, thanks above all to bank stocks which have achieved a 27% increase since mid-July, driving the whole of Piazza Affari upwards +13,3%. During the week, the best bank was Intesa, which rose by 6,4%, followed at a distance by Unicredit which gained 1,7%, MontePaschi +1,6%. The Popolare di Milano +3,5% also rose sharply, accompanied by the other popular ones such as Ubi +2,4% and Pop.Emilia +2,3%. Mediobanca achieved an increase of 2,8%.
MILAN, BETTING ON EXPORTS
In the four sessions of the week of August 2,8th, the FtseMib index rose by 8,6%, bringing the year-to-date performance to +XNUMX%. But, beyond the spread, does the rally have solid foundations? Or will it disappear with autumn?
1) The real economy has not yet reversed the negative trend, but at least it is holding back the fall. After -0,6% in the first quarter of the year, Italy's GDP in the second quarter recorded a drop of 0,2%.
2) At first glance, at the mid-year halfway point, the collapse of the profits of industrial companies is striking. from 11,1 to 4,6 billion for industrial companies. In reality, however, the figure is strongly conditioned by the drop in Eni (from 3,8 to 1,8 billion) and by the results of Telecom, which went from a profit of 1,4 billion to a drop of 1,3 billion. There is no shortage, especially among exporting companies, of opportunities to take advantage of the acceleration in GDP between now and the end of the year. Italcementi, strongly rooted in Egypt, a country where it achieves over 20% of Ebitda, has come under fire, fell by 4,3%.
Among the industrial stocks, a few days after its listing on Wall Street as CNH Industrial, the spotlight was on Fiat Industrial, the brightest with a 1,9% increase favored by the promotion of an American broker. Hot week for the telecommunications sector in Europe, waiting for Carlos Slim's next moves on Kpn: Telecom Italia +1,8% on Friday.
Awaiting confirmations the luxury. On Friday, after a record week, the sector slowed down: Tod's lost 2,4%, Ferragamo fell by 0,9%, Luxottica -0,1%. Brunello Cucinelli, an excellent freshman, drops by 1,8%.
