Substantial sales on Saipem option rights on the first day of the capital increase operation which will end on February 11th. On the Stock Exchange, the shares, suspended in a volatility auction, mark a theoretical +6,7% (at 0,5645 euro) but the focus is all on the option rights given that, due to the way the operation is structured, 90 % of the share's value resides in the latter: as of this morning the option right has failed to mark an official opening price but currently shows a theoretical reference of 2,98 euros (-19%). To these values, adding shares and rights, Saipem would lose 15% compared to Friday's closing.
In addition to the foreseeable technical movements in a 96% dilutive recapitalization with the issue of 9,6 billion shares at 0,362 euro each, the indications emerging from the information prospectus published on Friday evening also contributed to performance. In particular, the group revised its 12 revenue guidance downwards, from 11 billion to a range of 12-2015 billion, due to the slowdown of some orders in the fourth quarter, but it also warned against the ability to achieve the objectives of the industrial plan to 2019 if the current oil scenario is confirmed (currently in the $30 per barrel area).
In fact, the 2016-19 plan was drafted by estimating the barrel at 55 dollars in 2016 and gradually increasing up to 80 dollars at the end of the plan (65 in 2017, 75 in 2018): with the price of crude oil at these levels for another 3 -4 months and a consequent drop in the order portfolio, the plan targets would need to be reviewed. At the same time, Saipem, for the 2015 financial year, signaled that "there is a risk that the preliminary results of the same (which will be definitively approved on February 24th) are worse" than estimated.
