A favorable macroeconomic situation, globally stable risk levels and a large untapped potential yet to be exploited. This is the picture from which Restart, the latest Sace Export Report, takes its cue, which signals for Italian exporting companies the opening of a unique window of opportunity and growth forecasts at an average annual rate of 4,7% in next four years.
Sace two ways to strengthen the presence of our companies on international markets: the enhancement of the agri-food chain - which represents about 10% of Italian exports - and the identification of the most promising geographies for Italian products, through the creation of a new indicator, the Export Opportunity Index.
Below are the main results, presented today at Palazzo Mezzanotte, headquarters of the Milan Stock Exchange, in front of an audience of 300 representatives of companies, banks and entities committed to supporting internationalisation.
PROSPECTS FOR ITALIAN EXPORTS: FINALLY ON THE RISE
According to SACE forecasts, Italian exports of goods will grow by 3,9% in 2015, double the rate of the previous year. The rate of growth will increase further in the three-year period 2016-2018, reaching 5%.
A positive pace, but distant from the pre-Lehman one, testifying to the permanent impact of the global financial crisis on international trade. Between 2000 and 2007, on average, world trade grew by 7,3%, 3 percentage points higher than in the period 2011-2018.
SECTORAL PERSPECTIVES: THE AGRI-FOOD CHAIN AS A DRIVING FOR EXPORTS
Agricultural and food industry products: among the most appreciated symbols of Made in Italy, equal to 10% of Italian exports, according to the Sace Report, they will have to play a driving role for greater internationalization of our country.
The Italian agri-food chain, with a global market that is now worth 1,1 trillion euros, has ample potential to express, thanks to Italy's good position on the world export podium in sectors such as agricultural machinery and food processing (in which we are respectively in 3rd and 2nd place) and good growth margins in the food and agricultural goods sectors (in which we respectively hold 7th and 15th place globally).
By expanding the reference markets and strengthening the leverage of internationalization, Sace estimates for the agri-food chain a potential additional export gain of 9 billion euros by 2018: 7 billion euros from the agri-food sector and another 2 billion euros from that of machinery, of which 84% agricultural machinery.
To date, the agricultural and food goods sector is the one for which Sace expects the greatest dynamism over the next four years, with an expected average growth in exports of 6,5% between 2016 and 2018, higher than consumption (+5,3%, in the same period), investment goods, the core of Italian exports (+5,2%) and intermediate goods (+3,9%).
EXPORT OPPORTUNITY INDEX: 39 DESTINATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
If in the agri-food chain the potential mainly concerns mature markets, for companies in other sectors the reference geographies also range over various emerging markets and identifying the geographies on which to focus is complex.
To help them, SACE has developed the new Export Map (www.sace.it/exportmap) and the Export Opportunity Index, a compass that helps companies understand the demand of foreign countries and the opportunities, in those countries, for Italian export. The score assigned to each country ranges from 0 to 100 (zero and maximum opportunity respectively) and is calculated on the basis of the value of exported goods, growth of Italian exports in the period 2011-2018, concentration of imports in the country and current share of Italian market.
The most appealing mix of geographies for Italian exports (with a score above 65) is a diversified set of 39 markets which already represent 73% of Italian exports and which can be better penetrated by our companies.
There is no longer a clear distinction between advanced, emerging, BRICS markets. Among the best destinations we find Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Qatar, but also South Korea, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Closer markets, such as Turkey and Poland (a market as big as Russia in terms of Italian export volumes) remain highly attractive.
Even the more traditional commercial partners present excellent opportunities, as is the case of the United States (+44% in the first three months), the United Kingdom (+7,2%) and Germany (where in March exports marked a +6 %, thanks to the towing of the automotive). Nigeria, Senegal and Angola remain attractive as frontier markets and may progressively become future trade destinations.
