Moderate but progressive growth, with an average annual rate of 7,9%. These are Sace's forecasts for Italian exports in the next four years outlined in its latest report, When exports become necessary, which outlines the main geographical, sectoral and strategic guidelines for the sales of Italian goods abroad in the four-year period 2013 -2016.
In detail, Italian exports will grow by 7,2% in 2013 and then accelerate up to +8,5% in 2016 with a turnover of 535 billion euros. Already in 2011 the pre-crisis levels were recovered (375 billion euros).
“The positive trend – notes Sace in the study – is the result of the process of "silent restructuring" carried out in the last decade by Made in Italy companies: a progressive repositioning of the market, not only geographical but also qualitative, which has allowed our exports to intercept new demand basins, in a context of slowdown in advanced economies and growth in emerging economies”.
Italian exports will be driven from medium-high technology goods and they will require greater selectivity in the choice of target markets. In fact, the recovery of mature markets should not be underestimated, which will continue to generate the best opportunities also in the light of the high export volumes; nor focus exclusively on the opportunities offered by the BRICs, which will begin to show the first signs of a reduction in growth rates. In particular, Sace indicates going beyond the Brics towards the new generation emerging markets, but without abandoning the destinations already acquired.
The Top Market ranking indicates among the key markets for Italian exports not only emerging economies such as China (to which an average annual growth of Italian exports of 12,3% is expected in the four-year period 2013-16), Brazil (+11,3%) , Romania (+10,6%), Turkey (+10,2%), Russia (+9,4%) and Poland (+8,4%) but also mature economies such as Switzerland (+11,5%), United States (+11,2%), France (+7%) and Germany (+6,6%). These are the countries that will generate the greatest value for our exports in the coming years.
In a medium-long term logic, Sace points out a significant number of next generation markets (next generation market), mainly located in South-East Asia, to which our exports have not yet reached high levels but are preparing to achieve sustained growth rates in the coming years: Indonesia (+10,1%), Philippines (+10,8%), Malaysia (+9,6%), Chile (+8,9%), Nigeria (+9,4%), Angola (+10,2%) and Qatar (+9,7, XNUMX%).
Overall, capital goods will record the highest growth rates, driven by the instrumental mechanics (+9,7%) and electrical equipment (+8,0%) sectors, the intermediate goods of the metallurgical industry (+10,1 .8,8%), mining (+8,6%), rubber and plastic (+8,3%) and chemicals (+XNUMX%).Made in Italy traditional (food, furniture, clothing) will instead see its propulsive role reduced, with rates below 6%, with the exception of basins of opportunity in the high-end range where performance will instead be much higher than the average.
