Depleted uranium rounds are not a nuclear threat, nor are they a new weapon, because they have been used by almost all armies since the 70s. Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow was a "great gift" to Putin because, in At a time when Russia risks being considered little more than a rogue state, diplomatic credibility is restored to it, at least in that part of the world now known as the Global South, formerly known as the Third World. The 12-point document prepared by Beijing is not a peace plan, but only China's positioning with respect to the war in Ukraine, defined as a “pro-Russian neutrality”. And it will be the upcoming spring offensives that will decide how long the war will last, whoever has the upper hand.
These are the fixed points on the state of the war in Ukraine which, in dialogue with FIRSTonline, puts the professor Stefano Silvestri, former president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, member of the Federation of Italian companies for aerospace, defense and security and of the Trilateral Commission.
Professor, how worried should we be about the news that depleted uranium shells will arrive in Kiev, as announced by the British government?
“Let's begin by saying that depleted uranium, Du (Depleted uranium), as it is called in jargon, is not an atomic bomb and is not radioactive. It's not explosive either: it destroys with kinetic force. And it's not an illegal weapon. It is known that microparticles that can be dispersed in the air after an impact can only cause damage to the body if inhaled or ingested, otherwise they do not pass through the skin. So whoever is near the hit tank, and breathes the particles of the projectile, risks falling ill, even if he hasn't been injured, but not so whoever is far from the battle. So those who are seriously at risk are the soldiers, both Russian and Ukrainian, who can suffer the consequences of the explosion while remaining unscathed, as happened in Iraq and in the former Yugoslavia. The danger to civilians is linked to the possible permanence of dust, even after some time, but it is neither automatic nor frequent. The specialists also explain that Du is not considered as dangerous as atomic weapons, gases, white phosphorus, chemical and radiological weapons, incendiary bombs. And in fact the International Court of Justice, in 1996, established that it is not comparable to nuclear power, because "its main purpose is not to "asphyxiate or poison", but, "only" to kill and destroy".
A "dirty" weapon then, but not enough...
“One could say so. The fact is that these shells are very "convenient" for any army: they are small, heavy and compact. They can also be mounted on simple individual weapons. And they are relatively cheap. Moreover, this is a product used very widely, not only for military weapons, but often also for civilian purposes: glass is colored with Du, it is used to ballast aircraft, to shield radiation, to drill oil wells, to manufacture compasses, golf clubs, spark plugs, even airbags.”
While the situation is stagnant on the ground, the big news in recent days has been the visit of the President of China Xi Jinping to Moscow: what do you think?
“I think Xi's visit was a great gift to Putin. Without the backing of China, Russia today would be little more than a rogue state. The Chinese president obviously doesn't behave this way out of generosity, but he does it because he is worried about the alliance of the Greater West, i.e. the USA together with Europe and Japan. The war in Ukraine, thanks to Russia, is an element of distraction, which keeps the Western powers, led by the USA, away from China and the Far East. However, China's position is delicate and may need to be changed.
Let me explain. If we take the famous Chinese 12-point plan, it must be said that it is absolutely not a peace plan and, in fact, the Chinese do not define it as such. In reality it is a document in which China clarifies its position. On the one hand we find the appeals to "non-interference inside", to "respect for borders", and to that of the "sovereignty" of every people. On the other hand, there is criticism of the United States for its Cold War mentality and for its attempt to assert its pre-eminence in the international system, including through the enlargement of NATO. That is, China is neither wholly on Russia's side, nor wholly on Ukraine's side. At best we could call this position one of “pro-Russian neutrality”.
By doing this, China can take advantage of Russia as a distraction from the West, as we have said; and also to use the relations that Moscow has in Africa and the Middle East to increase its role, see the recent Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement in which the Russians certainly acted as facilitators for Beijing's mediation. While continuing to maintain relations, especially economic ones, with those same countries which are enemies of his "eternal friend": Europe, the USA, Japan and India. In short, she tries to save goat and cabbage.
Of course, all of this is difficult to sustain in the long run. Even if China's future behavior will depend a lot on what Putin does. If Putin doesn't go overboard, like using nuclear weapons, then he can handle China's position too, but if Putin goes overboard, it could put China in a dangerous position. But problems could also arise if Putin were to weaken too much, politically or militarily: what would Beijing do at this point? For example, could he continue not to supply Russia with weapons? One could even put forward the hypothesis that, to avoid siding massively alongside Putin, Xi could seriously put forward a peace proposal. And then the situation would be delicate for us too.”
Why? Wouldn't a real peace proposal be good news?
“Because it is said that the pro-Ukrainian front would not come out split. If China makes a credible proposal, or even a simple call for a ceasefire and negotiations without preconditions, securing Putin's consent, the Western front could split. There may be a divide between the hard-core, those Poland-like states that would love to continue the conflict until they crush the Russians; and the accommodating ones, who, like Germany or even France, can't wait to end the war. But even if they were all tough and pure, and all united against the Chinese proposal, it would be a big problem. Because this could push China to support Russia more strongly and more clearly. In short, however you look at it, the situation in the near future is full of unknowns.”
Perhaps once there is a peace plan, the word should go to Zelensky.
“Of course, but even here it is not certain that the president agrees with the Chinese, he could say no to the simple proposal to stop the fighting. Until now he has always declared that before opening any negotiations the Russians must withdraw. Not to mention that Putin never wanted to meet him. An invitation from the Chinese to cease fire and then talk about it, could be considered a surrender to Russian bullying".
It seems to understand, at this point, that the only clear thing is that the war does not end tomorrow.
“Of course, the war will still continue, because the time for dialogue is not ripe. But I think both Moscow and Kiev are waiting to see how the spring offensives go. If the front stabilizes, if the war becomes a trench warfare, like the First World War to be clear, then perhaps we can and will have to think about other strategies. If, on the other hand, there are big advances, either from Ukraine or from Russia, then things will be different. Once again what will happen on the ground will push diplomacy and not vice versa”.
