Let those who believe that winter weather conditions could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine leave all hope. At most, there will be a glimmer of peace, which could come as early as the next few days. The objective, however, will not be the beginning of a peace process, but to fill the warehouses that have emptied in the six months of conflict with weapons and ammunition and to replace the soldiers at the front with fresher troops. It is an analysis as ruthless as it is lucid that of Professor Stefano Silvestri, a great armaments expert, former president and current scientific adviser of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), who with FIRSTonline talks about the situation in the field and the latest news on the diplomatic side.
Professor Silvestri, has the recent meeting in Lviv between the Ukrainian leader Zelensky and the Turkish leader Erdogan, which was also attended by the UN secretary Antonio Guterres, changed anything? There were two important issues on the table: the safety of the Zaporizhshia nuclear power plant and grain exports.
«Erdogan has been posing as a mediator for some time, but at the moment there are no concrete results. Instead, it is possible that both the Ukrainians and the Russians are interested in slowing down the fighting right now. This however does not mean that they are ready for a real peace agreement or an armistice. In my opinion it is still too early for that. However, I repeat, both sides could be interested in a truce. The slowly gaining strength of the Ukrainians needs more time to train men and stock stores with weapons, especially ammunition. The same also applies to the Russians: they have consumed a lot of ammunition in these months of war and they too are reorganizing the army with new forces, which however are not yet ready for the front. So both Kiev and Moscow may be interested in a lull in fighting. Furthermore, Putin might have an interest in dragging it out, with the fundamental goal for him of breaking the unity of the Western front. Not now, but in the winter, when the blackmail of gas will get tougher. I don't think he could, but he could think about it.'
Why could winter make things easier for Putin? The blackmail of gas is clear, but on the military front? Wouldn't conditions be harsher on the ground?
«Let's start with the blackmail of the gas. It could be a temptation for some countries, faced with the houses without heating of their fellow citizens, to circumvent the sanctions for unilateral agreements that could break the Western front. Everyone is obviously thinking of Germany, the most fragile country at the moment. I don't think it will. I believe the Germans have a much stronger staying power than they are credited with. But Putin could hope so. Just as he could hope for a more helpful government in Italy. I don't think he could aim for the lifting of sanctions, which seems very difficult to me, but for creating some confusion in the Western camp, that is. And it's not that unrealistic. As for the terrain, it is now the hardest period for military operations that is coming, not winter, because in autumn the ground will become muddy, and therefore operations with heavy vehicles will be increasingly difficult. With the arrival of winter, however, everything will be easier, because the frozen ground will help the movement of vehicles and men».
So are we to expect another winter of fighting?
"In my opinion, yes. And it will be a decisive winter. Even for Putin's Russia, which is in miserable conditions. The sanctions have hit very hard, even if you don't feel it. But propaganda, inside and outside Russia, is one thing, reality is another. Research by Yale University has produced a very detailed analysis of the effects of the sanctions on Russian society. I read the conclusions: Russian citizens continue to live as if the war had not even begun, but they are at the limit. The departure of Western companies and businesses has caused a million unemployed, while there is a lack of spare parts for a lot of objects. The same sales of oil in Asia (starting with China, which does not seem to be such an ally) rather than helping Russia have choked it, because prices have dropped by up to 30%. This does not mean that the regime will collapse, but it is a fact that the sanctions have done and will do more and more harm".
So you just expect a lull in the war with the aim of both the Ukrainians and the Russians gaining strength and then unleashing decisive attacks?
"Yes. The Ukrainians need more sophisticated weapons as well as ammunition, while the Russians need not only to fill their warehouses, but also to bring in fresh, trained troops. Two things must not be forgotten: the first is that at the moment Putin has had the war waged by mercenaries (Wagner, for instance) and by non-Russian Russians, that is, by soldiers of other ethnic groups: Chechens, Dagestanis, Cossacks, Buryats. The President has so far postponed the moment of sending "his" Russian boys to the front because it is one thing for the coffins of the killed soldiers to arrive in Moscow and quite another for them to reach Grozny or the Far East. But until when will he be able to postpone the choice? The second thing not to be underestimated is the lack of ammunition on both sides: it is also this shortage that makes the war longer. There is a bottleneck in the market as missiles, rockets and other sophisticated weapons are built by companies as they do in peacetime. That is, few are made, because there hasn't been a change in the assembly lines, there hasn't been, fortunately, a general mobilization that has made the task urgent and the product profitable. Not to mention that Americans and Westerners, but above all the Americans, cannot empty their arsenals to fill the Ukrainian ones: it would be very imprudent".
We must then resign ourselves: will the war last at least until next spring?
«I would say yes, at least until spring. In the sense that only then will we understand how things have turned out on the ground: if there isn't a clear winner and an equally clear loser, it will still take time for the conflict to end".
It was aired in the last hours of a direct Zelesnky-Putin meeting: do you believe it?
"Frankly not. Zelensky might also be interested in meeting Putin, although he continues to say clearly that such a meeting can only be thought of when the Russians have left the borders. But Putin doesn't seem really interested to me. Let's not forget that he called the Ukrainian leader a "Nazi clown". It is difficult for the moment to pass over such insulting words. Will they ever meet? Sure, but that could only happen in the case of a capitulation of Ukraine. However, judging by what is happening on the ground, this does not seem to be the order of the day".
So let's recap what has happened so far on the ground: who has conquered what?
“Russia has conquered all of Donbass and connected it with Crimea through Kherson, a city in southwest Ukraine. So now it controls the entire eastern part of the country, even going a little further west and a little further north. Obviously the Ukrainians fought back. Their small counter-offensive is underway in both directions, both in the north-east and towards Kherson, an operation which however has not changed the data on the ground at the moment. It is true, however, that the most important military pressure is taking place precisely on Kherson and nearby Zaporizhzhia, home to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe (an agreement is currently being sought to keep it out of military attacks). Also for other reasons Kherson is very important. In its region (region, ed.) there is a reservoir from which all the water destined for the Crimea departs. As we know, Crimea has no reservoirs of its own and depends completely for water, for agriculture, but also for the survival of its inhabitants, from external interventions. It's a huge burden for Russia and it's another reason why Putin needs not only Donbass, but the entire southern part of Ukraine, if he wants to continue owning Crimea as well ».
