La war in Ukraine could be ai you drip and for a fundamental reason: Kiev has received all the aid it could get, both from the European side and, above all, from the American side and, since its counter-offensive hasn't given the desired results, there has been a stalemate on the ground, therefore, no all that remains is to sit down at a table and try to draw a compromise that is good for both parties.
This is the conclusion of the reasoning of Alexander Politi, director of the NATO Defense College Foundation, the only non-governmental research center recognized by NATO, professor of geopolitics, geoeconomics and intelligence at SIOI, the school that prepares for diplomacy, professor of conflict management, crisis, peacemaking and analysis at institutes government training, advisor to three Italian defense ministers and one Greek.
As for diplomacy, the last summit, that of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, held last weekend, brought together 40 countries, including China, and despite some differences, all pledged to start the peace talks from the integrity of Ukrainian territory, in compliance with the United Nations Charter, international law and principles of sovereignty.
Also in Jeddah was brought the peace proposal drafted by Zelensky which includes the withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, an international tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes, and international security guarantees for the country. The next step will be the meeting of Putin and Erdogan in Turkey by the end of the month.
As for the military stalemate, the Ukrainians tell the correspondents of the newspapers clearly: the enemies have entrenched themselves very well. Their minefields stretch to the outskirts of the most affected cities, the Russians have dug a formidable system of trenches, then even better protected are the bunkers with artillery, rocket launchers and tanks buried in reinforced concrete shelters even three floors deep , with command posts guiding the drones. In short, this first phase of the counter-offensive is not working while Western observers note the exponential growth of dead or wounded soldiers: by now we are talking about 25.000 disabled Ukrainians, the majority with their legs severed or in any case crippled by mines.
This is the framework from which the conversation with Politi starts.
“Yes, the war got bogged down. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making marginal progress while the Russians have made a major breakthrough in the northeast. Eventually, the front stabilized. It also happened because it is true that the Ukrainians have received many weapons, but it is equally true that they are often obsolete. To be honest, more than one country has taken the opportunity to clean up its arsenals by sending older weapons to Kiev to buy back new and better performing ones. It is true that everything goes well with the Ukrainian soldiers, but if more time has to be taken to train, then the counter-offensives languish".
This should suggest that the war continues indefinitely…
"No. On the contrary, it is possible that we are running out. The war cannot continue. The Europeans gave the maximum of what they had, the Americans all they could give to weaken themselves in the face of the biggest risk, China. However, how long the drippings last and how cruel they will be, we cannot say”.
If we are on the verge of war, we must glimpse a starting point for achieving peace. And what will it be?
“This is a very thorny point. In an ideal world we should arrive at least at the situation of 2014; with Crimea and Donbass temporarily remaining in Russia which could also convince itself that it has prevented Ukraine from joining NATO”.
Little from the point of view of the Ukrainians: doesn't it look like a total victory for Russia?
"No. Putin, let us not forget, wanted to bring down Zelensky and disarm the country. To "denazify" it, in his own words, which translated meant putting it under Moscow's orbit. This goal has clearly failed."
And what would the Ukrainians gain? They don't join NATO or even the EU. And they would lose a slice of territory in this vision…
“Ukrainians have shown that they are far from a fake country. They have forced Putin and the rest of the world to recognize them as a real state and have become a point of reference for an important geopolitical area. In short, the future is on their side, they should be aware of it. Starting in 2014 does not mean giving up territory, it means becoming a true interlocutor for the cumbersome neighbour. If the Minsk agreements have failed it is also because Ukraine was considered by Moscow only a pawn of NATO and not a state with which to reckon as equals”.
Why was diplomacy, and perhaps still is, so slow?
“Europe on Russia and Ukraine, despite appearances, does not form a common front: the first division is between those who want Kiev 'holy immediately' and those who don't. The second is between those who want the Russian defeat and those who don't. The former are currently the most visible, while Germany, which should be at the helm of the Europeans, it is not clear what it wants. It seems to be driven by interests that are neither national, nor European, nor of the global common good. A real problem, indeed a danger”.
Poland and the Baltic countries are sounding alarms about alleged Russian attacks on their borders. Couldn't they push for an enlargement of the conflict?
"Their aim is probably to exacerbate the crisis, but it will not happen, Biden and the Americans have been clear: the war in Europe is limited to Ukraine, China is the main opponent".
