No NATO country wants to bear the negative effects of a gas war in the aftermath of the pandemic. USA and RussiaHowever, they seem to ignore this point: they do not consider that their partners, at this moment, care about the economic recovery and do not want to exasperate an electorate already strained by the pandemic restrictions, which are also in the process of easing.
NATO and Russia in trouble
Six months after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and after the recent exit from Mali, NATO is in trouble, but so is Russia. After the crackdown on demonstrations in Belarus and force intervention in Kazakhstan, Moscow understood that the security cordon on the border with Europe – made up of former satellite countries together with Ukraine – it is crumbling. The process, moreover, had already begun years ago with the accession of Poland and the Baltic Republics to NATO: a path that now Norway and, above all, Ukraine also want to follow.
In the event of a Russian invasion, NATO would have no obligation to protect Ukraine, but everyone knows that Americans, British and Turks continue to supply Kiev with weapons to counter Moscow. As for the Russians, after the Crimea it seems clear that they want to permanently secure the disputed regions in eastern Ukraine. And in the meantime, the residents of Donbass who have applied for Russian citizenship are close to one million, while over 750 have already obtained it.
The situation in Ukraine
Since the Orange Revolution of 2004, there is no peace for Ukraine. Over the years the country has woven increasingly close ties with the European Union and NATO, but it has also passed from one political crisis to another, ballasted by a high rate of corruption (Ukraine is ranked 122 out of 180 in the Transparency Index). Then, in 2014, the conflict in Donbass. Since then, the former "breadbasket of Europe" has avoided bankruptcy and has managed to deal with the pandemic only thanks to the aid of the International Monetary Fund. The funding came in exchange for the promise of economic and structural reforms, but these have been hampered by recessions and a lack of political will.
After the 2015 debt restructuring, a new 18-month 700 billion dollar line of funds was first frozen and then released two years ago: the first tranche of XNUMX million was disbursed in December and the last two will arrive only later the March and June checks on the progress of the reforms.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president Zelensky, forced to deal with a declining popularity rating and increasingly widespread poverty, took advantage of the Munich Security Conference to reiterate your request for help. An intervention which, together with the tone chosen by the Americans, contributed to putting the European Union in difficulty.
Europe: with the war stop gas and goodbye recovery
At the end of the Conference, the central axis of European power formed by France, Germany and Italy returned to the sender the hypothesis of preventive measures against Russia. The priority is to address the issue on which negotiations have stalled, namely the possible entry of Ukraine into NATO, desired by the US and seen by the Russians as an unacceptable affront that would require an armed response.
A possible tightening of sanctions against Moscow it would transform a boomerang for the West, because the worst repercussions of these measures would not be the Russian economy, but the European one. Moreover, in an already difficult period due to delays in supplies and the increase in energy prices, which exceed 100% and, in the medium term, could become unsustainable for many industries.
In the meantime, however, the latest US sanctions have achieved one result: stop work on Nord Stream 2, i.e. the doubling of the gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany.
In summary, therefore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine would allow Putin to put an end to territorial disputes, but at the same time it would push NATO to tighten sanctions, causing problems above all for the European Union. In fact, Russia would turn off the gas taps in retaliation, depriving Europe of the energy it needs to fuel the recovery, given that American gas is too expensive and can only be a short-term palliative. The target announced 12 years ago by the EU to reduce energy dependence on Russia it was never achieved and we are now paying the bill for this failure.
Energy: accelerating on renewables is vital
In Italy, gas production is at its lowest since 1954 and over 45% of our needs are covered by Russian supplies. While in Germany renewable sources will cover 80% of national needs by 2030 (reducing dependence on gas to 16%), today our country does not reach 40% of renewable energy. For this it is crucial to use the European funds dedicated to the ecological transition also to accelerate on renewables. Raw materials remain at the center of the fate of financial markets, at their highest since 2014, because this war concerns energy, which has fueled inflation by forcing a change of course on central banks. The EU runs a serious risk: passively accepting the decisions of the USA and Russia and not committing to keeping the dialogue open would cause economic damage to European citizens and industry, nullifying the post-pandemic recovery.
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