Russia's central bank raised its discount rate to 17% from 10,5% set five days ago. The decision, taken when it was 1998 am in Moscow, represents a desperate attempt to curb "inflation and devaluation" after a dramatic day, the worst since 40, in which the ruble, already down 10% against the dollar since January, it has lost another XNUMX% of its value yesterday.
Dollar bonds yield more than those of Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya or Rwanda. The Russian Central Bank itself predicts that GDP could fall by around 4,5% in 2015 if oil prices were to remain around 60 dollars a barrel, precisely the level reached yesterday by Brent while WTI crude (-3,3% ) fell to $55, its lowest since 2009.
Moscow's move thus closed a hectic day, with two faces: a quiet morning and then a violent and sudden storm unleashed by the new drop in oil prices, which slipped to new lows on the wave of declarations by the energy ministers of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia's iron allies: production, they repeated, will not be cut.
MILAN THE WORST. NEW HOLDING OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY
The reaction of the price lists was heavy, starting from Piazza Affari, one of the most sacrificed: -2,8% under the pressure of energy stocks and banks. Consistent losses in London (-1,5%), Paris (-2,5%) and, above all, Frankfurt (-2,6%). Wall Street more stable: Dow Jones -0,58%, Nasdaq -1,16%. The S&P closes down -0,62%.
This morning the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by 1,9% after Monday's 1,6% loss. Hong Kong and Sydney are also down. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (+1,1%) is a story of its own: the rise coincides with the drop in the PMI index, a new sign of slowdown in the Beijing economy which, in turn, has favored a further drop in crude oil.
INDONESIA, THAILAND, Türkiye. THE COINS SHAKE
This is the extremely high-voltage context in which the last 2014 meeting of the Fed kicks off tonight, from which the market expects clearer signals on the timing of the increase in US rates. The US economy, in strong recovery as yesterday's data on industrial production confirmed, seems able to withstand the new situation.
The situation is different for the Emerging economies, often heavily indebted in dollars. The Indonesian rupiah returned to 1998 levels this morning, in the midst of the Asian crisis. Same script in Thailand, where the Stock Exchange loses more than 3 percent. Even the Turkish lira drops by a generous 4%: the situation is aggravated by the arrests of journalists decided by Erdogan, a move that distances Ankara 11 from the EU.
VISCO: RISKS INCREASING, YES TO PURCHASES OF ECB SECURITIES
In Europe, meanwhile, the confrontation on Qe is heating up. "We are not in a deflationary situation, but the risks can no longer be ignored", Governor Ignazio Visco said in a hearing before the House Finance Committee, adding that "with the collapse of oil prices, the price dynamics will be worse in the next months".
Tomorrow, meanwhile, the voting for the election of the new president of Greece will begin: in the event of no agreement, the risk of early elections looms.
Flat calm, at least for now, on the debt market. The Btp improves with the yield falling to 1,99% from 2,07% on Friday, the spread drops by 6 basis points to 137 bp. The 1,785-year rate in Spain reaches a new all-time low of XNUMX%.
ENI (-3,5%) STILL UNDER FIRE. ENEL WITHDRAW
The new slump in crude weighed on the oil sector. Yet the prices in the morning let us foresee a quiet day, marked by the recovery of prices also due to the blackout of supplies from Libya, torn apart by the military confrontation between the factions. Then, after the declarations of various ministers of the Gulf countries, prices started to fall again. The Eurostoxx Oil & Gas index turned down by 1,8% (it rose by 2% in the morning). Eni thus closed down by 3,5% at 13,29 euros, marking the new low since November 2011. In the morning it had gone as far as marginally exceeding 14 euros on the wave of the news of the positive results of the test of production on the Minsala Marine 1 exploration well in Congo
Tenaris -2,2%. Saipem gains 0,2%. Enel and Enel Green Power are also under fire, both -2,5%.
BANKS, MPS AND CARIGE CRUSH
The prices of Monte Paschi crumbled, down by 8,14% to 0,5245 euro and of Banca Carige (-7,09% to 0,059 euro). The two institutions have received the green light from the EU for the new recovery plans which envisage, among other things, onerous capital increases, a difficult step in this situation. . In the next few days the two banks will meet the Boards to take stock of the situation: the Ligurian bank's summit could already be held today (the entry into the capital of Carlo Bonomi is predicated), the appointment in Siena between tomorrow and Thursday.
The reductions of the main and Popolari banks were also very heavy: Intesa -4,3%, Unicredit -4,7%. Banco Popolare closes down by 3,3%, Ubi -3,7%, Pop.Emilia -2,5%. Only Banca Pop.Milano closed positive (+0,2%).
The Generali share (-2,65%) did not escape the downturn, affected by the rating cut decreed by S&P for both Leone, UnipolSai (-3,2%) and Cattolica (-2,8%), as a consequence broadcast of the downgrade already announced for Italy.
FIAT and TOD'S CLOSE WITH A PLUS SIGN
Few titles in positive ground. Fiat Chrysler closes up 0,5% at 9,12 euros after having scored a session high at 9,44 euros. In the morning, the analysts of Exane Bnp Paribas restarted coverage of the stock with a Neutral rating and a target price of 10,1 euros, 11% above Friday's closing price. According to the analysts of the French bank, the Ferrari IPO will be one of the driving factors of the financial markets in 2015. The Prancing Horse is associated with luxury stocks and, making a comparison with the companies of the luxury players Lvmh and Hermes, they have obtained a valuation included in the range of 6-10 billion euro.
Speaking of luxury, the rise of Tod's +1,5% stands out.
Difficult day instead for the other industrialists. Finmeccanica leaves 3,4% on the ground. StM loses 2,5% after detaching the quarterly dividend. Pirelli – 3,7%, Prysmian -2,5%. Telecom Italia falls by 1,9%.
