It thundered so much that it rained for Greece. By refusing to subscribe to the proposals of creditors (EU, ECB and IMF), who had yesterday offered an extension of aid of 15 billion euros until November, and by surprisingly calling a popular referendum on July 5, Greece blew up the table of the negotiations and dangerously embarked on the road that leads almost inexorably to default.
Faced with the twist in Athens on Friday night, which sounded and sounds like a clear declaration of no confidence in creditors, the Eurogroup refused to extend further aid without guarantees on reforms (primarily pensions and VAT) as it had asked Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis and held Greece accountable. "The Greek people will survive" commented the Greek premier Tsipras but not as and certainly not better than what would have happened with an agreement with Europe.
At this point it will not be easy for Athens to find the money needed to pay the installment due to the Monetary Fund for 1,5 billion euros by Tuesday and, if Athens does not pay, default will automatically start, even if it will still take twenty days before the technical procedures actually reach the finish line.
The most immediate problem is that of Monday when the markets that were counting on an agreement between Greece and its creditors and that did not expect the negotiations to collapse will reopen on Monday. For this reason, Mario Draghi's ECB immediately took the field to contain the fire and manage the default, trying to prevent Athens from ending up leaving the euro and perhaps also from Europe.
Beyond the exchange of accusations, the assault on ATMs and supermarkets, the long lines in front of the branches of Greek banks are a snapshot of the drama that Greece is experiencing, which cannot, however, place all the blame on Europe. What is certain is that we are in the most serious emergency and that for Athens but also for the euro it is a red alert. Only a new miracle from SuperMario Draghi can avoid the worst.
