The tension on the Ftse Mib eased which reduced the drop to 1,33% at 20.289 points. In the morning, with the recovery of sales on peripheral stock exchanges, the index had dropped by more than 3%. In Piazza Affari, the detachment of dividends has an impact above all, which lost by 1,46% and which concerns 19 companies of the Ftse Mib. "Net of the coupons we are in line with Europe", says Gabriele Roghi, head of investment consultancy at Invest Banca, "there are the conditions for a consolidation phase but nothing alarming".
The Ftse Mib had just dropped 3,6% last Thursday, how far can the sell-off go?
Between now and the summer, the Ftse Mib could drop by 5%, I would say to about 19.600/19.100 points. The pull of the S&P500 is missing, which has now been at its highs for some time and is a level that is difficult to overcome. Also the macro data isn't great. Finally, the earnings cycle in Italy does not support the climb. For the next 2-3 months we expect a phase of consolidation at these levels, which is in any case a positive aspect given that the market had grown a lot. The next threshold is to return to 21 points and then 21.800. By the end of the year we see an affordable return to 23.400.
What is the market looking at?
The main one is the European elections. Political polls and the phase of technical darkness for some countries that cannot disseminate them are an element of strong volatility. At the moment, the market is already discounting a certain level of affirmation by populist parties. A level that involves the June intervention by the ECB, which is taken for granted, but which does not jeopardize the status quo that led to the recovery of the spread. In this scenario we are dealing with profit taking in light of the uncertain situation and the fact that the markets have gained a lot. A calm situation for now but which has room for worsening if the affirmation of populist parties goes beyond expectations and which would open up another scenario on the markets.
How to move these days?
For the next few days we always expect a similar situation. Some prices have become more affordable and could be a buying opportunity. But between now and the summer there aren't many points of income. It is best to wait a week while remaining liquid.
