While the debate on the 2017 budget law is heated, it may be useful to observe the state of health of some productive sectors which are a valid indicator for understanding the trend of the real economy. Among these, by characteristics and extension, there is that of Catering: just think that every day, in Italy, about 11 million people eat out and that the only one collective catering (especially schools and hospitals) produces a annual turnover exceeding 4 billion euros.
The maneuver proposed by the Executive is openly aimed at giving a shock to the Italian system by focusing on investments and support for consumption. But which choices can best help the concrete achievement of these objectives? From “Ristorazione 2016” – the exhibition-conference that took place in Milan in recent days – some ideas emerged that help to answer this question. This initiative – promoted by the monthly “Ristorando”, the magazine directed by Antonio Savoia which has been following the restaurant business in all its aspects (commercial, collective, chain) for over twenty years – has reached its ninth edition.
In this year's appointment, “Ristorando” gave rise to a particularly extensive discussion with the intervention of over one hundred speakers including politicians, economists, public managers and sector operators.
The result was a scenario that can be summarized as follows:
- food consumption suffered a sharp contraction during the most acute crisis years: between 2007 and 2015 over 18 billion euros at constant values according to an elaboration made, on Istat data, by the Study Center of the Federation of public establishments (Fipe);
- the catering operators held (better in the commercial sector, with more difficulty in the canteen segment) only thanks to the trend, by now consolidated also in Italy, to move food consumption away from home (in twenty years the relative percentage increase has been more than eight points);
– however household spending in this field, despite the recovery recorded in the last three years, it remains largely lower, in real terms, than that recorded in 2007, ie before the crisis exploded.
“Demand is weak”, notes Luciano Sbraga, director of the Fipe Study Centre, “but at least today there is. However he worries about that the signs of recovery are losing intensity compared to the previous months".
In fact, in catering companies, the climate of confidence (and it is the second time since 2007) is back in the positive zone, but the index that measures it is 5 percentage points lower than the maximum, reached just one year does. To give a decisive boost to recovery, therefore, it is not enough to look only at demand. “A problem is also given by the profile of the offer”, acknowledges Sbraga.
This today comes from a sector of significant size (public establishments count 260 thousand companies, one million employees and 40 billion of added value) burdened, however, by many critical points that can be summarized in the formula: many companies, many employees, little productivity.
There is therefore a challenge to be faced which primarily concerns operators, but its success also depends on the overall direction of economic policy. In any case, choosing catering as an observatory, it can be concluded that the way of a complete exit from the crisis still appears far away.
