La current account liquidity increased by 110 billion, but the percentage of Italians able to save has dropped by almost seven points. These are two of the main effects of the pandemic which, according to the "Research on savings and financial choices of Italians 2021" carried out by Intesa Sanpaolo and Einaudi Center, it has widened the inequalities existing in our country, affecting above all the middle-lower classes and women.
However, the forecasts for the future are encouraging: “Omicron won't derail the recovery”, assures Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, who presented the survey together with Beppe Facchetti and Giuseppe Russo, respectively president and director of the Einaudi Center. To support growth, De Felice points out, it will be necessary "to make the best use of the enormous amount of savings that has been parked in banks" by households and businesses.
Be careful though'Inflation, which according to the Intesa Sanpaolo economist "benefits those with debt, governments and businesses", but damages "employees, because in Europe there is no recovery of wages on inflation, and savers who have invested in income fixed and have a lot of liquidity. Central banks will have to protect the purchasing power of savers”.
2021: THE YEAR OF THE TURN
In 2020, Covid entered one out of ten homes, with 9% of Italian families suffering consequences on their health or that of a member of their family. Almost 4 out of 10 families (36,8%) have seen reduce or eliminate ordinary income due to the economic consequences of the pandemic. Among them, 19,6% said that revenues had decreased “a little”, 15,7% that they had decreased “a lot” and 1,5% that all revenues had been lost. These are the results of the interviews carried out by Intesa Sanpaolo and Centro Einaudi between March and May 2021 with those responsible for financial choices. The survey quantifies it at 105 euros per month the average loss of household net income which has affected one in three families despite the aid launched by the government having made it possible to mitigate the negative economic effects of Covid. "On average, subsidies or other forms of financial support reached 28 percent of the sample, so they nominally served 74 percent of those who lost income," the report notes.
THE SAVINGS
The pandemic has seized unprepared families Many Italians were therefore forced to draw on their savings, so much so that the share of Italian savers dropped from 55,1 to 48,6%. Among the categories most affected by the crisis are women. In fact, only 45% of them "did not affect their savings and 10% used them significantly", said De Felice. The director of the Einaudi Center, Giuseppe Russo, instead underlined how the pandemic has "accentuated social distances".
At the same time, the share of the involuntary savings, made up of people who were unable to consume due to activity and mobility restrictions. The combination of these two factors resulted in an overall increase in the liquidity in current accounts of households equal to 110 billion euros. “Last September, compared to December 2019, the liquidity deposited in current accounts increased by 230 billion – explained De Felice. Of these, 110 billion come from families”. In general, "Whoever earns the most, has saved the most", while the share of precautionary savings has increased.
How will this money be spent? The main objectives of savers remain security in the long run and liquidity in the short term. In this context, the interviewees are generally satisfied with the investments made in the last year. The bonds receive limited consensus: they are owned by 22% of the sample, against an all-time high of 29%. The actions instead they are considered qualifications for experts, therefore the prerogative of a minority equal to 6,1% of the sample. “The highest satisfaction index of all asset classes goes to managed savings (the ratio between satisfied and dissatisfied is 6 to 1)", underlines the research, highlighting a strong change in the opinion that savers have towards funds: "they are no longer perceived as speculative products, suitable for those who have good resources to invest ; now for the majority of the sample they are products characterized by expertise, by diversification that controls risk and, above all, they are also suitable for small savers”.
As regards new and alternative investments, i Most they were only considered by 2,5% per sample, but for every effective subscriber there are 6 who are undecided and could invest in the future. THE bitcoin fascinate just 5% of those interviewed, while 6,7% (14% among graduates) are interested in ethical investments and with a positive impact on the environment and society.
CASE
Going forward with the data, the research underlines how i home loans (1,1 percent of the sample), which usually accounted for the lion's share of household liabilities, followed the decline in real estate sales in 2020, growing less than in previous years. But something could start to move. After almost two years of smartworking and Dad, the Italians want a bigger house. In fact, our houses are on average smaller (81 m96) than those of the Spanish (102 m109), the French (18 m2,6) and the Germans (10,7 m50) and the restrictions imposed during the pandemic have shown the insufficiency of our housing stock. 500% of those interviewed judged the space in their home insufficient, 125% would have already decided to change it and XNUMX% would do so if other conditions were met (financial above all), percentages that rise among young people and those has a higher level of education. If the success rate of these wishes were just XNUMX%, underlines the study, "in the next few years, the real estate market could face a demand for home renovations of over XNUMX units a year, of which approximately XNUMX out of urban centers, not counting normal demand, not derived from pandemic issues".
THE DYNAMIC SAVERS
What are the families who have managed to accumulate savings during the pandemic going to do? The interviewees, in this case, are divided into two factions, the first (equal to 64%) declared that they wanted to wait and keep aside what you have accumulated, the second (equal to 36%) instead intends to resume a consume and invest. It is interesting to note that savers belonging to the lower middle class and with limited education belong to the first group, while graduates, young people belonging to the upper and upper middle class belong to the second.
TRUST IN BANKS AND THE EU
Finally, the study shows how the judgment of Italians on banks has grown sustainably, reaching an all-time high, with the rate of satisfied customers of the service equal to 18 for each unsatisfied customer. Fifteen years ago, when this question was first asked, the ratio was 3,9 to 1.
In parallel, it also goes up trust in the European Union, with the balance between those who trust Europe versus those who do not reach 46 per cent compared to 26 per cent in 2020. “Europe's approval rating rises with education level and not with the transfers benefited from”, notes the study.
"Italians' trust in Europe has increased, but this trust will require a huge political commitment", explains Gregorio De Felice, underlining that in 2022 Italy will have over one hundred conditions to respect, while 46 billion euros will arrive from Brussels , of which 23 in the form of grants and another 23 in loans. To support growth, continues the chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, it will also be necessary to push up reforms "that lay the foundations for sustainable and sustained growth for the post PNRR". Finally, it will be essential "to make the best use of the enormous mass of savings that has been parked at the banks". Only by focusing on these three levers will Italy be able to overcome the consequences of the pandemic. De Felice is sure of it: "2021 will be the year of truth".
