The Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, and the Governor of Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, took to the same stage one after the other, talking about the country's economic situation and discussing the country's needs remotely. They did it on the occasion of the 95th world savings day organized as every year by Acri, under the High Patronage of the President of the Republic.
An expected confrontation in a delicate moment for the country, in which positive and negative indicators on the trend of our economy are presented in parallel, making it difficult to accurately analyze reality. On the one hand, the spread that is decreasing, the more serene relations between Italy and the EU, the launch of Qe2 by the ECB, the last act of Mario Draghi at the helm of the Eurotower which lends a hand to the country, the – successful – mission to avoid the increase in VAT as part of the budget law that is about to arrive in Parliament. On the other, the stagnation of the manufacturing sector, the stagnant GDP, the worrying international scenarios that could have serious effects on the country.
But they both agree on one thing: the protection of savings passes through the development of greater sustainability.
GUALTIERI'S SPEECH
Given the context in which he speaks, Gualtieri cannot fail to start from savings, a central theme for the country which, according to the minister, is increasingly linked to sustainability: "Putting the connection between savings and sustainability at the centre: there is no protection of savings without sustainability and sustainability cannot be pursued without savings. Italians have always had a higher propensity to save than other European countries”. For this reason "it is good to encourage greater financial integration between EU countries, but a healthy diversity of the European financial system must be preserved", safeguarding "the function performed by savings banks".
In this the virtuous path towards a sustainable economy also includes the manoeuvre of the PD-M5S Government which "chose to avoid the path of a restriction that would have had negative consequences in this situation and chose the sustainability of public finances with a downward path of debt", said the minister, adding that "A decade pre-crisis levels have not been recovered after the crisis”. In the maneuver "we have taken measures to alleviate social suffering".
“Keeping public budgets in order – he continued – means make political choices responsibly, i.e. with the awareness of the balance between income and expenditure. And therefore a responsible budgetary policy must take into account the cyclical trend of the economy”. “The only way out of low natural rates is to make greater use of the lever of fiscal policy, above all at the European level, in an orderly and coherent manner”.
The number one in via XX Settembre also spoke of Mario Draghi who today, October 31, officially said goodbye to the ECB: "He is grateful for what he has done to safeguard the integrity of the single currency and make a decisive contribution to safeguarding the savings of Italians and Europeans". Among the merits that the minister acknowledges to Draghi is that of having used "more fiscal policy leverage at European level and above all in a coordinated and coherent manner".
Lastly, Gualtieri referred to the banks, underlining that "the process of cleaning up the balance sheets is not yet finished but the goal is reachable and the issue of non-performing loans no longer represents a risk“. A reality that has made "The Italian banking system is more solid than in the past".
VISCO'S SPEECH
The Governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco gives an overview of the global economic context and the positive and negative repercussions it is having on our country, without forgetting the budget law that is about to arrive in Parliament and the new Quantitative Easing of the ECB.
Visco pointed out that “the decrease in the spread in the area of 130 basis points and the accommodating financial conditions mitigate the restrictive effects coming from the global context”. The reference is above all to the duties imposed by the United States on Europe which affect a limited portion of Italian exports to the United States, but their effects could be not negligible”.
Speaking of the Italian economy, the governor of Bank of Italy explained that “In Italy, after barely positive growth in the second quarter, economic activity should have remained roughly unchanged in the summer. In addition to the negative effects from the global context, the manufacturing sector was strongly affected by the close productive and commercial ties with Germany; its weakness should have been offset by a slight expansion in services and construction,” he points out.
Visco then stated that certainty about the conditions and prospects of public finances is an essential condition for protecting savings. Not only. If the countries of the Eurozone intend to make the most of it the new stimuli established by the ECB, other policies must also move in the same direction: with expansionary budgetary measures, where possible on the basis of public finances, and structural reforms "There would be less need to keep our monetary policy measures in force for an extended period, mitigating also the risk of negative side effects, if in countries where public finance conditions allow it, budgetary policy makes an incisive contribution to strengthening aggregate demand - said Visco - and if in Europe the emphasis is placed on reforms in structure and functioning of the economy”. However, the governor warns: 'There is evidence that the cuts in key rates have so far exerted a significant expansionary impulse but looking ahead, the risks of unwanted side effects may grow the longer official rates remain negative and above all the lower the their level".
In reference to the Budget law the Governor reiterated the need to maintain the difficult balance between consolidating public finances and supporting growth, selecting measures that can have a concrete effect, without forgetting the need to reduce public debt. According to him, “In order to effectively counter the cyclical slowdown, interventions must be selected on the basis of their impact on aggregate demand. The effective achievement of the expected balances must also be ensured, which is necessary in order not to weaken the confidence of the private sector".
“A strategy – explained Visco at the 95th World Savings Day – of decisive and lasting reduction of the ratio of public debt to GDP it also requires acting on the growth potential with concrete initiatives to improve the context in which economic activity takes place. Giving certainty about the conditions and prospects of public finances remains essential to protect savings, which are created and nurtured only if the economy grows at sufficiently high rates, along a balanced and sustainable trajectory”.
