The assembly of Bpm bank Friday, February 28th will be the first test of the whirlwind bank risk underway in our country that will most likely upset the balance of Italian finance. It will be a turning point for the bank led by Joseph Chestnut, to Soul Sgr, to Unicredit by Andrea Orcel. And also for Credit Agricole.
It will be for Banco Bpm which, at Castagna's instigation, called the meeting to ask for approval of the relaunch on Anima. It will be for the latter, whose shareholders will have a clearer understanding of the terms of the offer and will be able to better decide whether to accept it or not. But the result of the meeting will be a crucial test also and above all for Orcel who has already declared that a modification of the offer could induce Unicredit to withdraw its takeover bid on Banco Bpm. It would be a sensational move that would upset the game of risk, would probably lower the value of Banco Bpm shares and would leave Unicredit free to attempt new projects. In a word, to direct its designs towards Generali, of which it already owns 5,2%, ruining the plans of Caltagirone and Dolphin – but also of Ps and mef – on Mediobanca as a bridge to the Lion of Trieste.
Orcel is unpredictable and could also relaunch on Banco Bpm to hinder the conquest of Anima. For all these reasons the Piazza Meda meeting is decisive and the attitude of the Credit Agricole who will have to decide whether to side with Castagna or with Orcel with the aim of defending their interests in managed savings. So watch out for Friday. The curtain is about to rise.
