Renewables: in 2050 they will produce 92% of EU electricity

Above all, the reduction in costs is favoring the surge in wind and photovoltaic energy, destined to accelerate further in the coming years - 13 trillion of investments by the middle of the century - Climate change: pay attention to what will happen after 2030

In 2050, half of the world's energy and 92% of that used in the European Union will be produced by the wind or the sun. The growth of the two main renewable sources will therefore be exponential, considering that today their share does not go beyond 7%. As for fossil fuels, between now and the middle of the century the weight of coal in the production of electricity will drop from 37 to 12%, while oil will be almost completely abandoned. This is what Bloomberg NEF analysts forecast in the latest edition of the “New Energy Outlook”, presented on Wednesday at Enel's Rome headquarters.

COST REDUCTION

Upstream of this transition are the "strong reductions in the costs of technology", write the researchers, underlining that already today in two thirds of the world wind and sun represent the most convenient options for adding new energy sources. And it will get even better in the future: PV, wind and lithium-ion batteries will see their costs fall by 28%, 14% and 18% for each doubling of global installed capacity.

INVESTMENTS OF OVER 13 THOUSAND BILLION

Also by 2050, according to Bloomberg NEF, energy demand will increase by 62%, while global energy capacity is set to triple thanks to total investments of 13.300 trillion dollars. Among the various sources, the two main renewables will attract the most resources: in fact, wind power is at the top with 5.300 billion dollars, followed by solar with 4.200 billion. Much lower investments for lithium-ion batteries (840 billion).

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHALLENGE WILL BE AFTER 2030

Thanks to this evolution, until 2030 the energy sector will help keep the increase in global temperatures below two degrees Celsius. But from then on, the predictable development of clean energy today will not be enough to avoid a dangerous alteration of the climate: it will be necessary to invest in new technologies to be applied to renewables and important progress in decarbonisation will also be necessary in other segments of the world economy.

“Our analysis suggests that governments need to do two separate things – explains Seb Henbest, director of NEO – one is to ensure that their markets are friendly towards the expansion of wind, solar and low-cost battery energy; and the other is to support the research and early deployment of these other technologies so that they can be exploited at scale from the 2030s onwards.”