The revolution of renewables (Er) is advancing with the turbo and the numbers of the energy transition from a world dominated by fossil fuels - coal and oil in the lead - to a world dominated by energy produced with the sun, wind and other ERF are truly impressive. Prices that have collapsed in ten years (from 180 to 40 dollars in solar power, from 80 to 40 in wind power), technological progress, environmental needs are at the origin of a phenomenon that has literally "exploded" with estimates - presented to Enel during a day dedicated to “Italy and renewable energies” – truly amazing.
Secondo the International Energy Agency (IEA) by 2022 the generation capacity from renewable sources will grow by 43%, equivalent to half of the current one produced by coal which, however, took 80 years to be built. More: photovoltaics - and this was the turning point illustrated by Paolo Frankl, Head of Renewable energy division of the IEA - in 2016 grew more than any other energy source, surpassing for the first time the net growth of coal at a global level with record prices, which collapsed to 30 dollars per megawatt hour in the latest auctions in Latin America. Over the next five years 2017-22, the Agency plans a world growth exceeding 920 Gigawatts but which could touch 1.200 GW in a more favorable scenario, mainly driven by China and India and by the rock-bottom prices of green energy. “Solar energy is entering a new era” is the conclusion of the IEA expert.
If we add to these forecasts those of Bloomberg New Energy Finance we see that photovoltaics will attract 70% of global investments in electricity generation plants, estimated at 10,2 trillion US dollars in 2040, the year in which approximately two thirds of cumulative installed capacity will come from renewable sources. "China and India - continued Thomas Rowlands-Rees, senior analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance - are a 4 trillion dollar opportunity for the energy sector". And to get an idea of how this will impact the gas sector, Bloomberg forecasts growth of 8% compared to current consumption but destined to replace only about 30% of the coal-fired plants that will close due to the advance of the Fer . This will generate "just" $804 billion in global investment in new generation capacity which will essentially serve to stabilize grids in the face of peak demand.
Have we entered a new era? There seems to be no more doubts. "The current one is a scenario that dismantles many prejudices we have lived with in recent years, i.e. that this transition to renewables was a non-market-driven operation but one based on public incentives, on the effort of good will" states the Prime Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, who spoke at the opening of the Enel conference. “Certainly – he admitted – there was this initial support, the result of legitimate political strategies, but what defeated is the idea of the economic impracticability of renewables, an idea completely superseded by the facts”.
“This is good news for the world – continued the premier – because it is strategic to contain the effects of global warming which brings drought, hunger and migratory flows already evident today in continents such as Africa. But it is one good news also for Italy since in this field the competitive capacity of the Italian system is there for all to see”. Moreover, concluded the premier, “this transition brings with it investments and a growth in jobs, which could go from 10 million employed in 2016 to 30 million in 2030".
Gentiloni recognized the leadership role of Enel and Egp in the field of innovation and renewables and before him Francesco Starace, CEO of the energy group, had recalled that Enel has put into account 5,3 billion of investments in the three-year period 2018-20 in what he called the second wave of digital investments”. 80% of this sum is dedicated to the digitization of networks and plants since – he explained referring to the group – “the renewables machine is proceeding with an extraordinary installation of Megawatts in the world. Italy brings with it technologies and related industries and a level of investment that is good for Enel but also for many Italian companies”. The reason for the group's "second turning point" is to be found in the fact that "the 30-40% penetration of renewables puts the sustainability of the networks in crisis and if we want to go beyond the digitization of the networks it is a necessary condition. Attached to this great revolution is another great frontier, that of the electrification of transport and we have taken it head-on - concluded Starace - aiming at the creation of a national network of top-ups to put Italy in a condition of play the game".
