The skein of pensions begins to unravel. Friday, or at the latest Tuesday next, the Council of Ministers will give the green light to a law decree to allocate 3-3,5 billion euros in 2015 alone. This sum - recovered in part with the 1,6 billion treasury that has been discussed in recent weeks, in part with the proceeds of the voluntary disclosure - will be used to start the reimbursements imposed by the recent ruling of the Council, which declared unconstitutional the provision with which in 2012 the Monti government blocked the revaluation of social security checks starting from 1.400 euros.
The Government expects to repay the unpaid sums in the two-year period 2012-2013 gradually and differentiating the amounts: the money will decrease as the income brackets rise, stopping starting from the treatments that mark the border of high pensions, i.e. those that are worth between 2.500 and 3.500 euros gross per month. The operation, which in all should cost between 4 and 4,8 billion, will probably close with a series of repayments staggered over several years.
The covers should be there, but Brussels has already launched more than a warning to the Rome address, underlining the importance of not compromising the stability of public finances, especially as regards the 3% limit imposed by Europe on the ratio deficit-GDP. To ensure compliance with the Stability Pact, therefore, the Italian Government will most likely complement the decree on pension reimbursements with a safeguard clause: if the foreseen funds are not enough, to comply with the sentence of the Constitutional Court, no further deficit will be produced, but new cuts in public spending will automatically be triggered. It is not yet clear which item of the state budget will be affected by the measure.
In any case, yesterday the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan once again reassured the European Commission: in 2015 the Italian deficit will not go beyond 2,6% of GDP and our country reiterates its commitment to respect the 3% rule also in the years to come. "I congratulate you on the great imagination with which the press has hypothesized figures and solutions", said the number one of the Treasury yesterday from Brussels, asking journalists to wait for the official decision of the Executive "so as not to alarm the pensioners". Padoan therefore guaranteed that the solution will be found “in full compliance with the principles that led to the sentence. The Government is working on a solution that minimizes the impact on public finances and allows compliance with all public finance parameters as written in the Def”.
In the morning the premier Matteo Renzi he had assured that the balances will not change “and in any case we will keep to the EU rules. We will take the necessary time to avoid making mistakes like those who preceded us: the sentence does not say that everything must be paid tomorrow morning". On the timing, however, Brussels should have convinced the Prime Minister to follow the line of Padoan, with whom Renzi himself had a long meeting last night after the technical discussions at the Treasury.
In any case, even if the decree were passed on Friday, INPS would not be able to start the refunds before July, the same month in which, due to the effect of the same decree, it should also start the capping of social security payments on the first of the month.
