The expectation of new stimuli is supporting the financial markets a few days before the ECB meeting. Asia also confirms the slowdown in global growth, already signaled by the decline in industrial production in Germany and by the disappointing data on the US labor market.
China has already taken action, lowering the threshold for compulsory reserves in response to the new, disappointing signals coming from the trade balance in August, characterized by a robust decline in activity. Thus the Csi 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists held up (+0,3%). Hong Kong, on the other hand, fell slightly, hit over the weekend by new protests against Beijing.
JACK MA LEAVES ALIBABA, TURNED TO RIYAD
Jack Ma, founder and main shareholder of Alibaba, today hands over the leadership of the group to David Zhang, as scheduled. But, in the wake of Bill Gates, he will be in charge of education.
Tokyo also rose, Nikkei index +0,3%. The government announced tonight that the country's GDP rose by 1,3% year on year in the second quarter, slightly less than the same office had anticipated.
Turnaround scheduled today at the Nissan board. Chief Executive Officer Hirotho Saikawa will resign following an investigation into illicit gains pocketed during Ghosn's management. The news was anticipated by the Nikkei Review: the turning point could favor an agreement with Renault which, in the chain, could reopen the FCA dossier.
South Korea's stocks are up 0,5%. Sidney is also on positive ground (+0,1%).
The currencies of Asia-Pacific are slightly recovering, the Korean won is in its fourth day of appreciation against the dollar. The Indian rupee is also revalued. Little moved Chinese yuan and Japanese yen.
Gold trades at $1.509 an ounce, up 0,2% from -1% last week.
Dramatic turnaround on the oil front. Saudi Energy Minister al Falih was deposed from office and is replaced by Mohammed bin Salman, son of King Salman. The turning point comes after the failure of attempts to raise the price of crude oil from the current 60 dollars a barrel. It is the first time that a member of the royal house has assumed this position.
North Sea crude traded at 62 dollars a barrel this morning, -0,8%, after last week's +1,8% which adds to three other consecutive positive weekly balances.
IN FRANKFURT, A LIFESAVER FOR THE BANKS IN SIGHT
Thursday's ECB board meeting, followed by Mario Draghi's penultimate press conference before Christine Lagarde's arrival in Frankfurt, is the most awaited financial event of the week. Faced with the slowdown in the economy, confirmed by the bad data arriving from Germany, operators are expecting a robust package of expansionary measures: from the cut in interest on deposits with the ECB from -0,40 to -0,50% to the announcement of a new quantitative easing. But unlike what happened in the past, the governor will also present protective measures for the banks, strangled by ultra-low rates. The ECB could introduce a double regime on deposit rates: banks will no longer pay, as they do today, a single rate for parking money in Frankfurt, but will have the possibility to choose among various options, the most convenient one. This could lead to a rise in short-term rates which should lead to an increase in the profitability of the banks' business, now practically at zero.
POWELL (FED) ALSO EXPECTS CUTS
The expectation of the next cuts by the US central bank (one next week, the other in a month for a total of half a point) contributes to the downward trend (Thursday or at the October summit). Fed Governor Jerome Powell, in a speech in Zurich, said that "there are no recession forecasts" and hinted that a new rate cut will most likely be decided at the mid-month meeting.
JOHNSON DOES NOT GIVE UP. AND THE SURVEYS REWARD IT
While waiting for the central bankers to take the floor, attention will be focused on current political affairs, especially in the Eurozone.
New dramatic day for Brexit. Despite repeated defeats in Parliament, Boris Johnson insists on asking for an exit from the EU by October 31, even in the absence of an agreement. From him there are the polls that give him a significant advantage (even 14 points margin) over the opposition.
SPOTLIGHTS ON PALAZZO CHIGI. THE TREASURY AUCTIONS ARE COMING
Spotlights turned on this morning also on the speech with which Giuseppe Conte will ask the Chambers for trust. In particular, the markets intend to have the first indications on the next manoeuvre. And in the coming days, the Ecofin ministers will want to know where the coverage will come from.
Equally high are the expectations on the Alitalia dossier, major public works and motorway licences.
Attention is also paid to Treasury auctions: on Wednesday 6,5 billion Boi per year will be auctioned. Tonight the modalities of the offer of medium/long-term securities on Thursday the 12th will be announced, which will have to confirm the record drop in yields, which however rose to 0,87% last Friday.
The German Bund restarts this morning from -0,65%, the BTP from 0,87%.
The euro dollar is unchanged at 1,103.
ELECTRIC VOLKSWAGEN AND APPLE STREAMING STARTS
At the Frankfurt Motor Show, the Volkswagen group kicks off its electric breakthrough: after the launch of the full-volt Porsche, the Id-3, the new mass-produced car, is presented.
The Piazza Affari calendar is still half-holiday. The board meetings of Cembre, Esprinet, Landi Renzo, Tamburi will be held during the week
Consumption data will be at the forefront of Wall Street this week. Keeping track of Wal-Mart accounts.
The most awaited event, however, is the traditional early autumn presentation of new Apple products. Attention is focused on the new versions of the iPhone, starting with a low-cost smartphone. But the curiosity of the Stock Exchange will also be due to the debut of the Apple in streaming. Apple will present the team that will challenge Netflix and Walt Disney. Tim Cook has spared no expense in the shopping campaign: Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey and Jennifer Aniston have been recruited.
