According to a report by the Intesa SanPaolo Studies and Research Service, which publishes an in-depth economic note, concerning countries with subsidiaries owned by the same institution, conflicting but in some cases very interesting signals are arriving from Eastern Europe. Just as the exploit of Egyptian industrial production shines. But let's see in detail.
Hungary: GDP grew by 3,6% y/y (year on year) in the third quarter of this year, which indicates a slowdown in the country's growth which in the second quarter marked +3,9%. The reduction in the unemployment rate had a positive effect on the dynamics of household consumption and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) grew, reaching the peak recorded last April. In the same quarter, Hungarian exports also grew by 8,5% compared to the previous year. Inflation recorded negative values, on average in the three months it was equal to -0,4%.
Slovakia: like Hungary, this country also recorded a slight slowdown in the growth rate (it went from +2,6% in the previous quarter to +2,5% in the third quarter). Industrial production grew by an average of 6,1% year/year; the ESI fell in October below the average of the previous three months. Inflation turned out to be nil.
Slovenia: industrial production grew by an average of 6,2% y/y in the third quarter. Unemployment decreased to 12,5% (minimum since the beginning of the year) favoring retail sales which grew in real terms by 2,2% compared to the previous year. Exports also grew as well as the ESI which reached the maximum value of the last 5 years. Inflation was slightly positive.
Croatia: Industrial production, during the three months, showed an average slightly negative result -0,2% y/y. The figure for August weighs on this average (-6,2% y/y), while the figure for September is positive (+5,5% y/y). Domestic demand has shrunk; exports had a positive change in August (+1,6% y/y) but decelerating compared to the July figure (+3,9% y/y).
Romania: the GDP recorded an annual increase of 3,3%, also growing compared to the figure for the previous quarter (+2,2%). Good changes in industrial production and exports, respectively +9,6% and +9,1% (year/year). The ESI is the only index that has not grown, remaining stable on the highest levels of the last year.
Serbia: GDP contracted again in the third quarter (-3,7% y/y). Industrial production contracted by 9,6% y/y, in particular the data relating to the following sectors decreased: energy (-38,9%), mining (-29,6) and manufacturing (-8,8, 10,6%). Exports also decreased (-XNUMX% y/y).
Albania: Exports decreased by -0,4% y/y in August, the figure is less negative than the average for the quarter (-1,2% y/y).
Bosnia: Exports grew by 1,7% in August. Industrial production also returned to positive territory (+4,0% y/y).
Russia: the weight of international sanctions is being felt. The growing difficulties in raising capital and the fall in oil prices have brought new downward pressure on the ruble, generating exchange rates similar to 48 RUB : 1 USD. The annual rate of inflation rose to 8,3% in October (y/y), with numerous interventions by the Central Bank, including the increase in the reference rate, which went from 8% to 9,5 %. The GDP grew by 0,7%, supported in particular by the agricultural sector.
Ukraine: in the first 9 months of 2014, the GDP decreased by 3,6% in real terms, marking ever worse data in the temporal sequence of the various quarters. Agriculture is the only sector growing (+16% from January to September). Also in Ukraine there has been a devaluation of the national currency. At the end of September, the Monetary Authority abandoned the exchange reference value of UAH 12,95: 1 USD. In a few days the Ukrainian currency lost a fifth of its value bringing the exchange rate to 16 UAH : 1USD. In mid-November, the Central Bank ran for cover by raising the reference rate again (+ 150bps) to 14%.
Egypt: the result of industrial production was good, growing by 30,4% in September and by an average of 25,3% in the third quarter. The GDP is estimated to be growing. Moody's reaffirmed its Caa1 rating on foreign currency sovereign debt, but changed its outlook from negative to stable.
