2013 will be an important year for fiscal austerity in Europe. In most of the peripheral countries of the euro area, 2013 should mean the apex of consolidation policies; the only exception is Ireland where consolidation efforts will remain high also in the two-year period 2014-15. However, the austerity process cannot be considered concluded before having brought the debt back to sustainable dynamics; having said that, the premises for this consolidation are and will be laid in the two-year period 2012-2013. In the short term, weak growth will continue to weaken the capacity to contain the public debt, on this front the greatest progress will only be achieved from 2014. In the United States, sustainability is not currently under discussion and the capacity to control the debt appears to be in improvement, but the slow consolidation process will have to continue well beyond 2014.
Attachments: Report of the Intesa San Paolo research office – 2012.pdf
