Great expectations but also great concern for the meeting that will be held today, at 12.30, in Berlin between Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel after the frictions of the last few weeks. Among the topics on the table, there will be two fundamental themes that will be addressed during the interview: Schengen and immigration on the one hand, economic policy, with reference to budget flexibility and support for banks, on the other.
The survival of the Schengen Treaty appears to be at risk after the introduction of emergency border controls by Denmark, France, Germany, Austria, Norway and Sweden. Greece's incapacity to stop arrivals from its external borders and supervise who enters and leaves, especially via the Balkan route, further exacerbates the contrasts between the various countries.
In the event that an agreement cannot be found between the Member States, the risk is that many countries decide to exploit article 26 of the treaty, closing the borders for two years and putting a serious mortgage on the future of the same treaty.
It is of capital importance that Renzi and Merkel manage to find a common line. According to German newspapers, the German chancellor will support the need to grant Turkey the three billion promised in order to contain the departure of refugees. In parallel, however, theGermany seems to have every intention of not leaving Italy alone, country of first arrival of thousands of people, in the control of external borders. In exchange, Rome will have to keep its commitments on hot spots through which to register the arrival of anyone who touches our shores.
We recall that the summit of the two heads of state precedes another fundamental appointment for Europe: the presentation of the Jucker plan which will be held at the end of February and on which the fate of the Schengen treaty will in all probability depend.
As far as economic policy is concerned, however, it is on this issue that there is a risk of greater friction between Angela Merkel and Matteo Renzi. The Italian Premier will not give up on request for greater flexibility on public finances. The Prime Minister was clear: Europe must change its policy and abandon the rigid austerity that is destroying growth. Italy is restarting, it has returned to being a solid nation, and has the right to continue to implement the policies necessary for recovery. To do so, it will still need some more margin from Europe, above all in consideration of the fact that Italy has so far complied with European parameters and is the only country that is really making reforms.
On the banks, Renzi will ask for compliance with the agreements made two years ago on the banking union, an agreement based on three cornerstones. The first, already in force, concerned the single supervision of the European Central Bank; the second, which started on 1 January 2016, envisaged the transition from bail out to bail in in the management of banking crises; the third, left in limbo precisely because of Germany's opposition, established the creation of a European guarantee on bank deposits. On this front, Chancellor Merkel, who today appears politically weaker than in the past due to the opening up on immigration, will hardly be able to fulfill the requests of the Italian Premier.
Finally, the issue of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline that German companies intend to build with the Russian Gazprom despite the sanctions against Moscow, could finally also arrive on the table of the two leaders. An Italian concession on this front too could strengthen Renzi's chances of bringing home some results on flexibility.
