They should have been held last spring, but the Covid emergency stopped everything: the regional elections in Liguria, Veneto, Marche, Tuscany, Campania, Puglia and Val d'Aosta they are then recovered on 20-21 September and the virus that is still circulating will (negatively) condition participation, even if the concomitance with the referendum on the cut in parliamentarians could exercise – especially among the Grillino electorate – a call to go to the polls. So we vote Sunday 20 September from 7 to 23 and Monday 21 September from 7 to 15, but each Region has a different electoral system. Meanwhile, the color of the ballot: that of the referendum will be light blue, while that for electing the governor will be green in Campania and Veneto, pink in Liguria, orange in Puglia, Tuscany and the Marches.
SINGLE SHIFT: BALLOTTING POSSIBLE ONLY IN TUSCANY
The direct election of the governor is foreseen in the six regions with ordinary statute. In Campania, Liguria, Marche, Puglia and Veneto, voting takes place in a single round: the candidate for governor who gets the most votes wins, even one more than the others. In Tuscany, on the other hand, a ballot is possible, since a candidate is elected governor in the first round only if he gets more than 40% of the vote. If no one gets them, the first two classified go to the second round which would be held on 4-5 October.
GENDER PREFERENCES AND EQUALITY
In all Regions with ordinary statute, next to the names of the candidates for governor, the voter will find on the ballot the symbols of the list of candidates for the regional council. Up to two preferences can be expressed for the directors: care must be taken, if two preferences are expressed, the second must concern a candidate of a different sex compared to the first (e.g., woman/man; man/woman), under penalty of cancellation of the second choice. This is true in Campania, Liguria, Marche, Veneto, Tuscany and also in Puglia (here, after the calls from the government, the double gender preference was introduced in extremis with a parliamentary passage).
SEPARATE VOTE AND BARRIER THRESHOLDS
The vote given to a list is also understood to be cast for the connected gubernatorial candidate, but in almost all Regions it is possible to cast separate votes: in Campania, Liguria, Puglia, Tuscany and Veneto, but not in the Marches. Not all lists will enter the regional council: they are set thresholds. In Campania, to obtain seats, a list must obtain at least 3%, unless it is part of a coalition which has obtained 10%. In Veneto and Liguria the threshold is 3% for lists and 5% for coalitions. In Tuscany, a list that runs alone must obtain 5%, if in a coalition, 3% (but the coalition must reach 10%). In Puglia the threshold is 8% for lists running alone or in coalitions, 4% for lists in coalitions.
THE STAKES
The regional match may not be decisive for the Conte 2 government but it is not without importance: we vote in 7 Regions from North to South and 18,6 million voters are called to the polls. It should be remembered that the session also affects 962 Municipalities which renew their mayors and municipal councils, for a total of 5,72 million citizens involved in this case. Each Region has its stake up for grabs, even in those like Campania and Veneto where the final outcome seems obvious.
The most uncertain Regions are Tuscany and Puglia. In Tuscany, a historic center-left fiefdom, the majority presented itself united around the candidacy of Eugenio Giani, proposed by the Democratic Party but also supported by Italia Viva and - albeit tepidly - by the 5 Star Movement. Giani is therefore favored in the polls, but the game is wide open because the candidate of the League, the MEP Susanna Ceccardi, is on the rise and Matteo Salvini himself is betting everything on her, who has chosen to end the electoral campaign in Florence.
Tuscany is a significant testing ground for two reasons: the government forces run together and it is one Historically “red” region, even if the wind has changed a bit for some time now. Already today two provinces (Grosseto and Arezzo) are in the hands of the centre-right, as are the Municipalities of Siena, Pistoia, Massa, Pisa, and again Grosseto and Arezzo. But if the Democratic Party were to lose the red fiefdom of Tuscany, the Zingaretti secretariat would rock heavily.
Puglia is also very important politically, where the majority on the contrary is divided and this could undermine the outgoing governor's chances of success, Michele Emiliano, patchily supported by Pd, right-wing exiles, civic lists and part of the grillino world.
In this Region, however, both Italia Viva (with Ivan Scalfarotto growing in the polls) that the 5 Star Movement run on their own, and by playing the game on a dry shift this could go in favor of the revived Raffaele Fitto, already a candidate for the same seat back in 2005, Berlusconi was in full swing. The conquest of Puglia will be played on the wire: a few thousand votes will make the difference between Emiliano and Fitto.
Then there are Marche and Liguria, two other historically left-wing regions which, however, could remain (Liguria) or pass (Marche) to the centre-right. In the Adriatic region the majority is divided and this should leave the field free for Francesco Acquaroli of Fratelli d'Italia.
In Genoa and its surroundings, however, the Pd and 5 Stars have found a synthesis by nominating the journalist of the "Fatto newspaper" Ferruccio Sansa, but the feeling is that the outgoing governor John Toti has achieved a good base of popularity. In the end, Veneto and Campania. In these two Regions the victory of the outgoing presidents is taken for granted, Luca Zaia of the League and Vincenzo De Luca of the Pd. But there are plenty of points of interest. In Veneto, for example, according to polls, the Zaia list could even double the one with the Lega symbol, certifying the governor's overtaking of Salvini's approval among the electorate of the North.
Zaia has been recognized by many as having managed the Covid emergency well and above all part of the Northern League base is not forgiving Salvini for the nationalist, not to mention southern, turn. By now the leader of the Carroccio is betting everything on the regions of the Center (even on the Municipality of Rome, where a fierce electoral campaign for 2021 has already begun) and the South, and has somewhat abandoned the ancient flagships of the League. Zaia therefore, in case of personal triumph, could run to become the new party secretary: hypothesis denied several times by the person concerned, which however already is in pectore.
The same dynamic also concerns De Luca in Campania. The president was one of the "stars" of the lockdown and should have no problem overtaking the centre-right candidate Stefano Caldoro. However, even in Naples and the surrounding area, the personal popularity of the governor is far superior to that of his party (Pd), and the game of lists could consecrate his leadership, weakening the position of the mayor of Naples Luigi De Magistris and effectively opening the dispute for the regional capital, which goes to the vote in 2021.
THE "UNPRESENTABLES"
As in every session, there was no shortage of controversy over the "unpresentables". In fact, according to the party self-regulation code and the Severino law, there are 13 in all at the Regionals: it was there that brought it out Parliamentary Anti-Mafia Commission, based on the checks ordered by the National Anti-Mafia Directorate. In Campania alone, there are nine "unpresentables": eight for the self-regulation code and one for the Severino law. Among them there is also a candidate from the "De Luca president" list (according to the Severino law and therefore ineligible as a convict), as well as several exponents of the centre-right.
