For the four referendums (nuclear, legitimate impediment and the two on water) it is almost quorum. At 22pm yesterday, 41% of eligible voters had gone to the polls. Reason why, if the electoral trend is confirmed in the next 8 hours (polling stations reopen from 7 to 15), the goal of 50% plus one should be achieved with a good margin, such as to make even the unknown factor irrelevant abroad, on which some appeals are already pending. Experts place the final projection of the final result in terms of turnout at around 55%. The precedent of the 2.006 constitutional referendum is valid, when at 22 pm on Sunday 35% had voted and when the polls closed, 53,8% was reached.
Naturally there are still two unknowns, which are contradictory to each other: the strong politicization could have meant that those in favor of the questions went to the vote on the first day; the good performance of participation could push the undecided to go and vote today. It will be known after 15 pm. However things go, the watchword of Berlusconi and his supporters is that nothing will change for the government. After all, both the League and the PDL had left their supporters free to vote. And there were some authoritative members of the majority (the governor of Veneto Luca Zaia, but also the mayor of Rome Alemanno and the governor of Lazio Polverini) who went to the polls. The fact remains that Berlusconi and Bossi had been equally determined in announcing that they would not go to vote.
This does not mean that the League could cause problems for Berlusconi. Bossi said yesterday that the premier is no longer able to communicate. And the controversy over whether or not to initiate tax reform is increasingly on the agenda. Tremonti said yesterday that he has an excellent one, but that he doesn't know who could give him the necessary funds (80 billion). Bossi tried to tone it down a bit, arguing that the economy minister's concerns are right, but that the money is there and can be found anyway. Where? Some say that, in view of the meeting on the 19th in Pontida, the League could ask for a halt to military missions, starting with the one in Libya, to find the money to reduce taxes.
A request that would not facilitate the bumpy path that is already before the Government which from 22 June will be engaged in the parliamentary verification requested by Napolitano. An appointment that could take on further political significance, after the probable achievement of the quorum in the referendums.
