GDP -9,3% this year but rebounding by almost 6% in 2021 and 2,5% in 2022; imports and exports that will grind again after the respective -15% and -16% of this year; unemployment which unfortunately will rise to 10,5% in 2022, from 9,8% this year. These are, in summary, some of the estimates of the Conjunctureref, presented by the Ref Ricerche center on 16 October, just as the nightmare of a new lockdown returns to Italy, averted for now but which could further distort these forecasts in the coming weeks. Current estimates, however, are already not enthusiastic: according to Ref, on the contrary the recovery could turn out to be weaker than expected. "Nadef, which has just been fired by the Government - argue Ref's scholars - aims to consolidate a positive climate on the markets, describing a favorable picture, so much so that it appears too optimistic at least at first sight".
“There are several indications that we are heading towards a still complex phase – explains the press release -. The circulation of the virus is increasing, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about what will happen in the winter months. We are now better prepared to face the virus, and this should prevent a new sequence of lockdowns in advanced economies, but a tightening of the restriction measures, or self-limitations of behavior by families, appear likely. The recovery phase could therefore experience a slowdown, or to temporary setbacks, until the first months of next year, if it is assumed that in six months new drugs or
a vaccine, other points on which, however, there are no certainties ”.
According to Ref's analysts, this explains why the exit strategy from the 2020 policies will not be simple. Governments have adopted highly expansive measures, but mainly with temporary effects, limited precisely to 2020. The risk that could arise is therefore that of a sharp retreat with respect to the measures adopted this year. Even the central banks, which have greatly expanded their purchases of securities, should move towards a phase of stabilization of net purchases and limit themselves, from the second half of 2021, to renewing those maturing. “But it is now clear that these programs are not enough”, explains the note.
In this picture, the position of Italian economic policy is certainly the most complex. On the one hand, in the latest Nadef, the Government took note of the signs of economic recovery in the third quarter, proposing an estimate of a 9% contraction in GDP for this year, a very negative result in absolute terms, of course, but close to what was expected in the April Def and decidedly more favorable than the forecasts formulated by the main international bodies at the beginning of the summer. “The Italian economy – says Ref – she doesn't show up this time as "last in class", despite having been affected by the virus earlier than other countries, and when there was still a lack of knowledge about the characteristics of the virus and the countermeasures to be adopted".
However, “the choice of the Government – close the analysts – was to fully use the transfers of the Next Generation Eu in the first phase, to then concentrate the loans from the EU in the following years. The bet lies inmake good use of these transfers and trigger a growth process based on the structural strengthening of the economy. It is a bet that can be won, even if some elements of caution should be advanced in this regard. In fact, Italy's experiences of using European funds are not comforting”.
