"The fiscal impulse of the economic maneuver is modest", but "it is not easy to produce decisive results in terms of expansion of demand if we find ourselves in the position of not being able to increase the level of the public deficit". This is what Ref Ricerche writes in its quarterly publication on the European economy. Furthermore, according to the new forecasts of the study centre, the Italian GDP will close 2014 with a drop of 0,3%, and then recover by 0,5% in 2015. Numbers in line with those calculated by Istat and also with the estimates contained in the government's latest Def (which differs only by a tenth of a point from 2015, in which it forecasts growth of 0,6%).
“In fact, the Italian budgetary policy has tried to abandon the previous deficit reduction objectives, indicating for 2015 a stability of the deficit close to 3 per cent – continues the analysis -. In reality, the objectives are slightly more ambitious, also because the Government has had to adjust the targets on the basis of pressure from the European Commission. In any case, considering that the maneuver presents some critical issues in function of some coverages (dimension of the cuts in the expenditure of the local authorities and the recovery of revenue expected to derive from the fight against tax evasion) it is probable that it will be hardly possible to remain at the below the 3 percent threshold.
Furthermore, according to Ref Ricerche, “the horizon of fiscal policy becomes more uncertain starting from 2016. Formally, the objectives on balances have been reaffirmed, which means that in 2016 the fiscal policy is expected to be highly restrictive. Our hypothesis is that in reality a negotiation has begun with the European authorities, aimed at reviewing the objectives also in the coming years. On the other hand, a normalization of fiscal policy appears necessary if the intention is at least to avoid another phase of recession. It is under these conditions that a slight restart of the economy appears possible, albeit at a pace that is still bland and insufficient compared to the large losses of recent years”.
