According to Istat data, in 2020 there was a increase in the level of poverty reached its highest since 2005: 5,6 million units against 4,6 million the year before. Then there is 2021, the year of the leap in GDP, of the increase in employment, albeit mostly precarious. And although the support measures introduced by the government during 2020, such as the Basic income e Emergency incomea, the poor have not decreased, indeed they have increased. We have not returned to the values of 2019, but we are very close and the future prospects are certainly not comforting. To show it are the Equitable and Sustainable Welfare Indicators (Bes)drawn up by Istat.
The much-discussed measure that divides public opinion but also government forces does not seem to fulfill the mission for which it was created: to combat poverty. While many believe that subsidies should not be focused on as they discourage the population from looking for work, others argue that instead the number of beneficiaries should be broadened and the amount increased, but there is no empirical evidence for their theses. The pandemic has certainly inflicted a severe blow on the Italian economy, but let's go and see why the numbers in the Bes-Istat report tell us that the Citizenship Income has not actually reduced poverty.
All the numbers of the Citizenship and Emergency Income
Based on INPS data, the resources of the Citizenship Income in 2021 increased by 23,1% (equal to 8,8 billion euros). As a result of decline in family incomes in 2020 (reference figure for 2021 disbursements), the number of beneficiaries expanded, around 1,77 million households began to receive at least one payment in 2021, against 1,58 million in 2020. But not only that, the average monthly amount disbursed has also increased, from 531 euros to 546 euros. As regards the transfers disbursed in the form of Rem, on the other hand, in 2021 they correspond to 2,2 billion euros (830 million in 2020), affecting on average 570 thousand households in the 7 months in which it was granted. The average amount of disbursements stood at 541 euros, slightly down on the 550 in 2020.
Overall the two tools have mobilized around 11 billion euros, reaching almost 2 million beneficiary households in the peak months.
In terms of territorial distribution, the Noon, consistently with the highest poverty line, is the main destination of the two measures with single-member households making up the upper share.
Another interesting element is the distribution of the beneficiaries by citizenship of the applicant. The Rem, a temporary measure, widens the audience with respect to the RdC: first for eligibility based on less stringent income and patrimonial parameters, according to the applicant must satisfy the residence requirement only at the time of the application while for the RdC a residence of at least 10 years, of which the last two continuous, excluding a priori some people in absolute poverty. In particular, 2020% and 22,4% respectively benefited from the Rem disbursements activated by the two decrees of 25,7 against 8,9% of Rem beneficiaries in December 2021. While the difference is more limited if you compare nuclei with a non-Italian European applicant.
The evolution of the indicator of absolute poverty
First, absolute poverty is measured by comparing the household consumption expenditures, calculated on microdata from the Household Expenditure Survey and the specific poverty thresholds. The absolute poverty threshold represents the monetary value, at current prices, of the basket of goods and services considered essential for each family, defined on the basis of the age of the members, the geographical distribution and the type of municipality of residence. A family is absolutely poor if it sustains a monthly expenditure for consumption equal to or less than this monetary value.
In 2020, individuals in conditions of absolute poverty exceeded 5,6 million units (about 2 million families), an increase compared to 2019 by over 1 million individuals (335 families). The increase is attributable to the worsening of the economic conditions which affected various segments of the population following the reduction in income and the employment difficulties that occurred during 2020.
However, in analyzing the increase in absolute poverty in 2020 it should be taken into account that the reduction in expenditure observed can also be partly attributable to other phenomena related to the health emergency, given that in the most acute phases many activities were prohibited or limited. Furthermore, in an emergency context, many families may have decided to cut expenses and increase the saving (as a precaution) given the uncertainty of the moment. Finally, even in periods when the restrictions were less stringent, some could have adopted different consumption behaviors in order not to expose themselves to the risk of contagion.
La war in Ukraine , energy crisis lead us to fear a worsening of the next Bes Report with an even more critical situation than the one inherited from two years of the pandemic. If we look at the Istat estimates for the period 2021-2024 we will return to the values of 2019. And probably even higher.
Poverty: territorial dynamics also confirmed
The 6,5% growth in GDP has not reduced inequality, even if the latest annual report of the Bank of Italy appropriately invites us to distinguish the dynamics of income from that of wealth. If the incidence of families in absolute poverty is confirmed to be highest in the South (9,4%, from 8,6%), the largest growth is recorded in North part where family poverty rises to 7,6% from 5,8% in 2019. Thus, in 2019 poor families in our country were distributed almost equally in the North (43,4%) and in the South (42,2% ), in 2020 they reached 47% in the North against 38,6% in the South, with a difference in absolute value of 167 thousand families. In absolute numbers, the poor are 2,5 million in the North, 788 thousand in the Centre, 1,6 million in the South and 643 thousand in the islands.
