What will happen to the Basic income and pensions with the victory of center headed by Brothers of Italy? Two hot topics that have focused the political debate of this electoral campaign. The center-right, like others, however, has not presented the coverage for all the promises guaranteed to the voters. This means that we will have to wait a little longer to understand which of these objectives can actually be achieved. In the meantime, however, let's analyze how the center-right government wants to change the basic income and pensions with the arrival of Giorgia Meloni at Palazzo Chigi.
Citizenship income and pensions: what happens now?
The workhorse fit of the M5s is about to be revised. After declaring on several occasions that the Citizenship Income was nothing more than "state methadone, useless and expensive", a few days after the victory, the leader of FdI changes position and speaks of a "recalibration" to protect the most fragile. Not canceled completely, therefore, but modified yes. A vision more in line with Salvini, who has always shown himself cautious with respect to the leader of the Brothers of Italy on the basic income (also because the League was part of the government that introduced it).
After all, even the premier Mario Draghi, at the time of taking office, had deemed it necessary to restructure the measure, which arrived with the first aid decree, in order to encourage the resumption of work activities and to strengthen the direct line between beneficiaries and employment centres.
Then there is the issue of pensions. The answer will come in the next budget law, but without intervention by the new government, the Fornero law will return on 1 January 2023 due to the limited time available to set up the Maneuver and the high costs that any pension news entails for the state.
Here are the proposals of the center-right on Citizenship Income and pensions in detail.
The "restructuring" of the Citizenship Income according to the center-right
In broad terms Meloni aims to change the subsidy of social support for poverty to protect people without income, effectively fragile and unable to work or difficult to employ: disabled, over 60, families with dependent minors. All the others people between 18 and 60 years old who are considered able to work and without dependent minors should instead be directed towards jobs or refresher courses and training for the job.
According to the latest INPS monitoring, in the first seven months of 2022 the households benefiting from at least one month's salary of citizenship income or citizenship pension were 1,61 million, for a total of 3,53 million people, one third of which can be employed. This has had a negative impact on job market, especially for the tertiary sector that has not been able to find the required profiles.
Even in this case, however, it will be a question of evaluating the resources available. The starting point will probably be a reduction in the funds destined for the Citizenship Income: from its inception to today, 23 billion have already been spent and more than 30 have been taken into account until 2029. The purpose of the restructuring of the measure is to reduce at least a third of the money allocated for it. As? Reducing the number of beneficiaries e tightening work obligations (the subsidy expires after two rejected job offers, but the center-right could cut further by introducing a single refusal).
Pensions: reforms or extensions?
The technical times to form the new government team will hardly allow one to get involved between now and the end of the year structural reform of pensions, with the budget law to be approved.
Expires on 31 December 2022 102 quota (early retirement with 64 years of age and 38 years of contributions) but also Ape Social and Option Donna. The second is aimed at the unemployed, caregivers and workers with a degree of disability equal to or greater than 74% and gives them the possibility of retiring at the age of 63 and 30 of contributions, while the third concerns employees who carry out particularly burdensome, and who can retire at 63 with 36 years of contributions.
Therefore, there is little time for the new government to find a square on the issue and avoid a return to full Fornero law (retired at age 67). The phenomenon will have a tangible impact on the State accounts also with regard to the revaluation of pensions from 1 January 2023, for which no less than 8/10 billion will be needed against an inflation that bites and restricts the purchasing power of families, already affected by energy costs. Which is why it is probable that next year there will be an extension of the currently existing measures on pensions.
Stop at Fornero and minimums at 1.000 euros: the promises of the center-right
The centre-right coalition's program focuses on raising the amount of pensions and flexibility in leaving. But the route to be traced remains completely uncertain.
Specifically, Forza Italia provides for theraising minimum pensions, social and disability benefits at 1.000 euros. An intervention that would require several billion: approximately 31,2 billion estimated. While the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, has focused his entire campaign on 41 quota (early retirement with 41 years of paid contributions). A reform welcome to the trade unions but which risks puncturing the public accounts: according to INPS estimates, it would reach 4 billion in the first year and then rise to 10 billion when fully operational, with a total ten-year expenditure of 75 billion euros.
More cautious Giorgia Meloni who, in addition to raising minimum pensions, proposes a stop to the automatic adjustment of the retirement age to life expectancy, the renewal of the Women's Option and the recalculation of “golden pensions”. But these are reforms in theory, without references to costs and methods, both for pensions and for the citizen's income.
