Record first quarter for global dividends. He supports it Janus Henderson, a leading asset manager, who in the latest edition of his “Global Dividend Index” calculates that in the first three months of 2022 dividends grew by 11% on a nominal basis (+16% the figure adjusted for exchange rate effects and other non-recurring factors) to 302,5 billion dollars, a record figure for this period of the year. And the best is yet to come, given that for the whole of 2022 the forecast speaks of a further increase in global coupons which will reach 1.540 billion dollars.
First quarter dividends: the basis of the record
Speaking of the record levels reached in the first quarter of 2022, the report by Janus Henderson underlines how part of the growth is to be attributed to a "Normalization" arrived following the disruptions previously experienced due to the pandemic. In 2021, in fact, many listed companies (on the advice of their reference authorities with regard to banks and insurance companies) had decided to suspend or cut their dividends in order to preserve the liquidity necessary to cope with the economic and financial difficulties triggered by the Covid -19. This year, however, thanks to the improvement of the global epidemiological situation, the companies were able to remunerate their members more generously. But be careful, because this does not mean that the increase in the first quarter is only due to the "decrease" of last year. Indeed, the growth reflects the recovery recorded by the main world economies between 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Not surprisingly, underlines Janus Henderson, the 81 percent of companies that paid out dividends from January to March increased the coupon compared to the previous year, while another 13% decided to keep it at the same levels as in 2021.
Record coupons in the US and Canada, oil prices are flying
Geographically, all regions saw coupon growth, but it was the record breakers United States, Canada and Denmark, which gave great satisfaction to the shareholders.
In UsaIn particular, in the first quarter of 2022, dividends increased by 10,4% on an underlying basis to $141,6 billion, the highest figure ever reached in the first three months of the year. They did even better in percentage terms Canadian listed companies, where coupons climbed to $13,4 billion (+14% on an underlying basis) driven by oil companies and banks.
The report especially emphasizes the performance of the Danish maritime giant Moller-Maersk which alone is responsible for Denmark's quarterly record.
At the sector level, the Global Dividend Index shows that all sectors recorded year-on-year increases, but showing the largest increases were the oil and mining sector. Dividends from mining companies, in particular, rose 29,7% on a nominal basis and 38% on an underlying basis. BHP will be the world's largest dividend payer for the second consecutive year in 2022.
The report also shows that, over the last five years, the sectors that paid the most dividends globally were banking, oil, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and insurance. Mining companies were seventh during that period, but last year they jumped to third place. “It is clear that they will continue to make a significant contribution in 2022, potentially distributing more than $100 billion in dividends for the first time – reads the study – Oil and metal prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, helping to support the growth of dividends in these sectors”.
The (very positive) estimates for 2022
As mentioned, the best is yet to come in terms of dividends. According to estimates by Janus Henderson, in fact, in 2022 global dividends will reach 1.540 billion dollars, with an increase in 4,6%, equivalent to an increase of 7,1% on an underlying basis.
Dividends in Italy: growth between 2022 and 8% in 9
Optimism also for Italy where listed companies, according to estimates by the British giant, will continue the post-pandemic normalization process until the end of 2022. “According to Bloomberg data, the MSCI Italy index currently yields around 3,5% and the IBES consensus expects a dividend growth between 8 and 9% for 2022, slightly higher than the 5-6% we expect globally - commented Federico Pons, Country Head Italy - This is related to the fact that dividend payments in Italy continue to normalize after the pandemic and the strong rebound recorded in 2021, a trend demonstrated also from the increase in dividends paid by Eni and Snam compared to last year”.
In fact, we recall that after the dividend day of 23 May, in Piazza Affari the coupon season continues, especially for the big names. June 20 will be a very rich day, with around 1,65 billion euros in distribution and two protagonists, Post and Snam, who will pay the balance of the dividend of 530 million each. Instead, the balance of the coupons will arrive in late July Enel which will put 1,9 billion into the pockets of its shareholders.
