Airlines do a roaring trade. There International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised the profit estimates of airlines for 2024, predicting that they will reach i 30,5 billion dollars. An even more positive estimate compared to the forecasts of December 2023, which were 25,7 billion dollars, and those of June 2023, which stood at 27,4 billion dollars. However, the record for global net profits remains that of 2017, with 37,6 billion dollars.
It also grows number of travellers which is close to the record of 5 billion (4,96 billion passengers).
Air traffic at pre-covid levels
The 320-member World Air Carriers Association acknowledged strong demand for passenger traffic and a recovery in cargo traffic prompted the revision of estimates. The forecasts of net profits were increased to $27,4 billion for 2023 and $30,5 billion for 2024, marking an 11,3% increase over 2023.
I total revenues of global airlines for 2023 were forecast at $896 billion, an increase of 6,9% compared to 2022. This represents an all-time record, surpassing 838's $2019 billion. The outlook for 2024 is even more positive, with an updated estimate placing revenues at $996 billion, an increase of 9,7% compared to 2023.
“A great achievement considering the recent, profound, losses due to the pandemic,” he said Willie Walsh, general manager of there it is however, underlining that "the road to sustainable profits is still long".
also the expense are growing and are destined to reach a new record of 936 billion dollars, marking an increase of 9,4%.
Despite the expected record profits for 2024, the revenue margin remains low at just 3,1%, which Walsh believes is not high: “earn only $6,14 per passenger it is an indication of how small our profits are: barely enough for a coffee in many parts of the world.”
Passenger traffic is growing
Il air traffic is growing rapidly. In April, the total question, measured in passenger kilometers (RPK), increased 11% compared to the same month last year. The capacity offered, in seats per kilometre, increased by 9,6%. The employment coefficient of aircraft seats (load factor) reached 82,4%, an increase of one percentage point compared to last year. There international question grew by 15,8%, with capacity growing by 14,8%, while domestic demand increased by 4%, with capacity growing by 2,1%.
even the freight traffic shows significant growth, +11,1% in April compared to the same month in 2023. It is the fifth consecutive month of growth compared to the previous year.
“Passenger demand is in growth for 36 consecutive months. As we enter the peak of the Northern Hemisphere's summer travel season, there is every reason to be optimistic for a strong summer, where companies offer a wide range of traffic options,” commented Walsh.
Driving air transport will be Asia, the Middle East and Africa
The prospects for the summer of 2024 are therefore optimistic. But the real push for air transport comes from emerging countries. In April, the demand for passenger transport has grown more inAsia-Pacific (+17,4%), followed byAfrica (+15,7%) and from the Middle East (+14,1%). In Europe growth was 9,3%, in Latin America 8% and in North America 4,2%.
Asia-Pacific is the region with the highest growth in passenger transport demand, followed by Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America and North America.
The growth in the number of air passengers in the next 20 years will be driven mainly by Asia. The Middle East will see a doubling of passengers by 2043, with annual growth of 3,9%. Major airlines in the region, such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, are expanding their fleets to meet this growing demand.
Without forgetting theIndia, where the next IATA annual meeting will be held, in which a real boom in air transport in the next years.
