Istat rethinks it, e on GDP provides the third different version in less than a month, the second within a few days. The +0,8% communicated last Tuesday, 1 March, relaunched with satisfaction by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on his Facebook wall, was revised this morning to +0,6%: this would be the actual increase in the Italian gross domestic product in the 2015 calendar year. The correction is due to a fairly simple consideration, which however the statistical institute had failed to publish in the latest survey: 2015 had three working days more than 2014, so the result was raw and had to be corrected in proportion to the calendar.
"In 2015 the GDP at market prices it was equal to 1.636.372 million current euros, with an increase of 1,5% compared to the previous year. In volume, the GDP increased by 0,8%, recording a growth after three consecutive years of declines“: this was recorded by Istat in communicated three days ago, which caused discussion as it even went – and unexpectedly – to improve the forecasts of the Government, which according to what was communicated by Renzi himself "at the beginning of 2015 was expecting growth of +0,7%".
The update comes with the accounts of the fourth quarter 2015 during which the GDP "expressed in chain-linked values with reference year 2010, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter and by 1,0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 Over the course of the year, economic growth showed a progressive weakening”, finally communicates Istat.
“Compared to the previous quarter – continues the press release released today by the Statistical Institute – all the main aggregates of domestic demand increased significantly, with increases of 0,3% for final consumption national and of the 0,8% for investments gross fixed. Imports and exports grew by 1,0% and 1,3% respectively.
The figure of +0,8% had in turn been revised upwards after a first estimate dated February 12, in which Istat actually found that “in 2015, GDP corrected for calendar effects increased by 0,6%. 2015 had three working days more than 2014 and the annual change in GDP calculated on raw quarterly data is +0,7%”, in line with the Executive's expectations. Expectations which, however, albeit slightly, are reduced with the final data published today: "In 2015 GDP adjusted for calendar effects increased by 0,6%“, definitively sentences Istat adding that “the variation acquired for 2016 is equal to 0,2%” and that the next survey is scheduled for May 31st.
In the confusion of the data, one thing must also be explained: to be able to communicate a +0,8 it is technically enough to arrive at 0,751, given that rounding is done to the third decimal place. This means that despite the imprecision in the communication, the data may actually have been very close to each other.
In the fourth quarter of 2015 GDP “expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2010, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter and by 1,0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. cyclical growth showed a progressive weakening during the year”, finally communicates Istat.
"Compared to the previous quarter - continues the press release released today by the Institute of Statistics - all the main aggregates of domestic demand increased significantly, with increments of 0,3% for final consumption national and of the 0,8% for gross fixed investments. Imports and exports grew by 1,0% and 1,3% respectively.
