The first half of 2024 presented a residential real estate market characterized by one constant growth of housing demand, with signs of confidence among buyers and price dynamics still increasing. Although the trading have recorded a slight bending (-2,8%), i housing prices continued to rise (+1,1%), highlighting a picture of stability and renewed interest in the sector. The data emerge from the report of theGabetti Research Office and confirm the recovery of the Italian real estate market, supported by favourable economic factors and an increase in demand for housing.
Stable economic context
Il climate of trust of Italians in the first six months of 2024 saw an increase of 8% compared to October 2023, also driven by the slight increase in GDP (0,3% in the first quarter and 0,2% in the second).occupation is continuously growing, with the employment rate increasing by one percentage point compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 62,1%. The unemployment rate is falling (6,2%), representing the lowest level since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. These indicators fuel an economic context of increasing stability, supporting confidence in the prospects for home purchases.
THEinflation in Italy it has reached reassuring levels, with a sharp decline from the high volatility of 2023. In September 2024, the rate fell to 0,7%, drastically reducing from 5,3% last year. The ECB responded with an expansionary monetary policy, cutting interest rates from 4,5% to 3,4%, and a further reduction is expected in the coming months. The decline in rates has had a positive impact on the real estate sector, with an increase in mortgage requests, especially for new subrogations (+50% compared to H1 2023).
Real estate market: Surrogations increase, sales rise
The volume of financing for home purchases reached 19,7 billion euros in the first six months of 2024, a slight contraction (-5%) compared to the previous year. In the second quarter, the market showed a reversal of the trend (+6,9%), thanks to a growth of surrogates, which now represent 10% of the volumes disbursed. This trend reflects the positive effect of reduced rates, which make purchasing a home more accessible, especially for families and first-time buyers.
Le residential sales totaled 341.094 transactions in the first half of 2024, marking a reduction of 2,8% compared to the same period in 2023. Despite the decline, the second quarter recorded a growth of 1,2%, recovering from the contraction of the first quarter (-7,2%). Among the main towns, Genoa and Rome showed slight decreases (-1,1% and -1,5% respectively), while Milan suffered more (-10,1%), signalling a different reactivity at a territorial level.
"The improvement in the trend of sales, as well as the growth in prices, shows that real estate investment remains a certainty for Italians. In fact, buying a home, even in this geopolitical and macro-economic scenario that is not exactly free from bad weather, is perhaps the only safe haven that protects our savings, as well as being a necessary condition for achieving maximum family well-being" he declared Mark Speretta, General Manager of Gabet group.
Real estate market: prices on the rise
I average property prices in the main Italian cities recorded an increase of 1,1% compared to the second half of 2023. Some urban markets, such as Naples (+2,2%) and Bari (+1,9%), showed significant increases, driven by growing housing demand and limited supply, especially for properties intended for tourism investments. High demand and limited supply continue to maintain high pressure on prices, also fueled by a preference for new over used.
THEprice expectation of property owners grew by 4,0%, reflecting a positive sentiment, influenced by the economic trend and the urban transformations underway. Padua stands out with the highest growth (+7%), due to the housing pressure given by the student population and the tertiary sector. Bari (+6%) benefits from the tourism boom, while Turin, thanks to a high quality of life and still low prices, attracts more and more investors.
A more dynamic market
Il average time to close a sale has dropped to 4,1 months in large cities, with discounts stable at around 10,5%. The reduction in sales times reflects a greater fluidity of the market, with demand ready to respond quickly to opportunities, especially for properties priced in line with market expectations.
What shoppers are looking for
La housing demand focuses on families with children and couples without children, but the share of investors is also growing. The sought-after features include balconies, parking spaces, elevators and a good energy class. The younger buyers place greater emphasis on affordability, proximity to public transport and environmental sustainability, while older buyers they prefer quality and comfortable homes.
