The sector of the real estate funds in Italy continues to grow and sees good prospects for this year and next as well. However the concern comes for the debt level of fund systems equal to 60 billion and grown to the physiological limit close to 50% of the impact on assets.
These are some of the data that emerged today in Milan from the 42nd Report 2023 on "Real estate funds in Italy and abroad", produced by Real Estate Scenarios in collaboration with the Casadei studio, who oversaw the part of financial analysis.
In Italy, real estate assets in 2022 are 123 billion, +13% year on year
Il real estate assets Italian, with a weight, compared to the rest of European vehicles of over 11%, is held directly by the 615 active funds in Italy and reaches 123 billion euros, with an increase of around 13% on 2021. The Nav ( Net Asset Value) at the end of 2022, reached 105 billion euros, with an increase of 10,2% on the previous year. The forecasts for 2023 they are for an increase in NAV of 4,8% and assets of almost 6%, while the number of vehicles could reach 635 units. "From the indications collected among the asset management companies participating in the study, it emerges that the prospects for 2023 are oriented towards cautious optimism, with an increase in managed assets and diversification of portfolios compared to the current composition" he said Frances Zirnstein, general manager of Scenari Immobiliari.
Fears about excessive borrowing
“It's a level of debt which could cause some concern in the future: today we have rates around 6%, while debt that will mature had rates around 1,5%. With a 4 percentage point difference, the yield goes to zero, and some banks may no longer be able to refinance", he underlined during the conference Emanuele Caniggia, by Dea Capitalal Real Estate Sgr.
The performance (Roe), although representing the average of very diversified realities, rose to 2,3% due to the effect of the increase in rents attributable to indexing with high inflation.
At the level of total turnover of the Italian asset management companies, we are around a value of over 400 million euros in 2022, with around 1.100 employees, while the value of the average assets for management companies is around 1,9 billion euros” says the report. As regards the asset allocation of Italian assets under management, there has been a change in the weight of the various sectors: residential, logistics, offices and commercial are growing. “In the context of acquisitions, interest in residential is growing, +4,6%, retail +3% and offices +10 percentage points” says Zirnstein
Comparison with international realities
Overall, the managed real estate industry has been resilient and investors, albeit cautious, remain determined to continue investing their money in real estate, the report said. “The difficult economic situation of 2022 did not have negative consequences on asset management in real estate through real estate funds and REITs (real estate investment trusts). On the contrary, concerns deriving from energy costs and political crises have reinforced the "desire for bricks" in global investors, provided they are well managed and capable of giving a return".
A Globally the assets of listed, unlisted funds and reits continue to increase and at the end of 2022 reached 4.450 billion euros, an increase of more than 19% compared to the previous year.
Also Europe has demonstrated good resilience in the sector: with 1.895 funds and 270 operating reits, total assets in 2022 amounted to 1.530 billion euros, up by over seven percentage points. The expansive trend of recent years has strengthened and in 2022 the weight of vehicles from the old continent on the total assets in the world was close to thirty-five percent. If in Europe the turnover grew by 3,5%, in the first five countries (UK included) the variation was more than ten percentage points with Germany, England and Italy protagonists of the growth.
“In ten years the value of managed assets in Europe has almost tripled while the number of vehicles, which reached 1.895, grew by 75 units, driven by the growth of the French Opci and Italian funds. And the prospects for 2023 also point in the direction of a continuation of growth” - said Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari. “The fund sector continues to be resilient and attractive to Italian investors.
