Like every year, the Svimez report, the Economy and Society of the South, is a weighty volume (550 pages), dense with data dedicated to the treatment of numerous topics which offer a detailed picture of the current conditions and prospects of society and theeconomy of the South. The presentation of this year's Report saw, among the numerous other interventions, as well as the report of the director Luca Bianchi, the conclusions of the president Adriano Giannola, and of the minister Raffaele Fitto. The report, the interventions, the greetings, the conclusions were intertwined in various ways and overall provided a framework full of questions and worried and troubling considerations about possible future prospects. It is not possible to give an account of all the contents of the Report, but among the many components of the analysis (and among the solicitations that emerged in the debate) those that highlight the factors that objectively risk influencing the launch and maintenance of any shooting process you will be able to set up, and it is above all on these that we want to dwell here.
Svimez report 2022: declining growth, the gap with the North widens
The first part of the analysis highlights the interruption of what, starting from 2021, had seemed like a season of growth recovery for the South. In fact, in the two-year period 2021-22, the growth rate of the South, first reached 5.9 and then immediately dropped to 2.9, to continue, according to forecasts, to fall in the following two years to -0.4 in 2023 and then to +0.9 in 2024. In the Centre-North, however, the rates for first two years are equal to 6.8 and 4.0 and the forecasts for the following arrive at 0.8 and 1.7. All of this means that a recovery is starting Southern divide from the rest of the country, with the result that in 2024 the GDP of this area will remain at -9.4 points below the level reached 17 years ago (in 2007), while the Centre-North will be +1.6 points compared to that same date %. We are therefore faced with the occurrence of a very probable tendency to increase the gap between the two areas: the confirmation of a two-speed country.
Even the demographic balance is heavier for the South
Another worrying context element is the demographic picture which is negative for the whole country but decidedly heavier for the South, due to both the reduction in births and migratory losses. Overall, it is estimated that in 2070 the resident population will decrease in the South by 32% and in the Centre-North by 13% (from 19.8 million to 13.4 in the South and from 39 to 34 million in the Centre-North); in both cases with a very large prevalence of the elderly population over the young. If this trend is not slowed down and reversed, it will certainly combine with the phenomena of poverty and social hardship which are highlighting peaks of extreme gravity in the South. On this front, in fact, in this area in 2021 41.2% of people (double or triple compared to the rest of the country) live "with low work intensity, at risk of poverty or severe material deprivation”.
Women and young people the most fragile rings
The Svimez 2022 Report clearly highlights how today they are already women and young people to suffer more from this situation. In fact, as far as the employment rate is concerned, the female rate is equal to 34% (the lowest in EU 27: 64.7%) and that of young people is 29.8% (also the lowest in EU 27: 56.5%). Furthermore, both young people and southern women experience the most precarious conditions at work, with a lot of non-voluntary part-time work. It is therefore no coincidence that young southerners are fleeing their lands: in 2020 alone, the net balance between departures and arrivals of young people was 45.000, of which 20.000 were university graduates: a drastic depletion of human resources necessary for recovery .
To all this is added the well-known fragility of the world of southern businesses. The industrial system of the South is characterized by a concentration of structurally very energy-intensive basic industries, and the small businesses themselves, which are widespread in the southern landscape, consume relatively more energy. This means that, within the probable persistence of the global energy crisis and the resulting inflation, the impact of the related costs will have a very significant impact on the industrial recovery and growth of the southern area.
Svimez Report 2022: 252 billion to be spent in a very short time
A further element to which the Svimez 2022 Report draws attention (and on which Minister Fitto and President Giannola have insisted) concerns the ability to use the resources available today and to be used within a few years. These are extraordinarily relevant but to be spent in a very short time. They total a 252,2 billion of which: 86,4 to be spent by 2026 concern the PNRR; 107,9 new resources POR, PON and FSC to be spent by 2029; and 57,9 the 2014-2020 resources of POR, PON and FSC still not spent (!). In this regard, it is worth recalling that Minister Fitto commented with some concern that in the next five years an amount equal to three times what was available in 2014-2020 will have to be spent, bearing in mind that the latter has been managed in eight years to spend just over 50%.
What to do to win the challenge
Faced with this challenge, a different narrative from the recent past will have to open. In order to bring into play the existing development potential of the Mezzogiorno, problems of choices, strategy, vision, governance, control of the trend in the cost of energy materials and inflation, the setting up of a path of continuity in able to maintain the new situation created. You will have to overcome the difficulties of local authorities (Regions and Municipalities) in the phases of design, tender, assignment of works, control of construction site work up to the achievement of the availability of the planned investments. You will have to establish a coordination of development policies which affect different territorial areas but which cannot fail to be interconnected if we want to enter the new global value chains, promoting new forms of work through systemic innovation based on safe and renewable energies, on digitalisation, on circular economy, on the ecological transition. All in a Euro-Mediterranean dimension. You will also need to build a integrated school, university and research system, to give weight to the cultural and scientific education of the new southern generations and to establish a relationship between the world of education and the world of modern global vision production.
In all of this it is not known what will happen with thedifferentiated autonomy.
As we said at the beginning, this year's Svimez Report presents a problematic and uncertain picture. On the one hand, the South is showing many signs of being on the eve of a probably disastrous economic and social recession. On the other hand, albeit with various and heavy difficulties, he is preparing to measure himself against a challenge that makes his wrists tremble, consisting in putting down, at least in large part, the positive expectations marked by the season of PNRR. Expectations based on non-widespread potential, but certainly capable of being exploited to start a new development in the South.
There are many things to do and times are tight
