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MEDIOBANCA REPORT – Bots beat the Stock Exchange over ten years

MEDIOBANCA REPORT "Indices and data" - In ten years Piazza Affari has lost a quarter of its value and has become the twentieth Stock Exchange in the world - With an annual return of 2,3% the Bots have surpassed the blue chips: here's how and why

MEDIOBANCA REPORT – Bots beat the Stock Exchange over ten years

In 10 years, the Milan Stock Exchange has seen a quarter of its value evaporate (-25%) and has lost nine positions in the ranking of world stock exchanges, reaching 20th position with 496 billion of capitalization in June 2014. This is what emerges from the report annual “Indices and data” of the Mediobanca Research Department.

The markets that have surpassed Borsa Italiana since the end of 2003 are on average about twice the Italian one, in terms of capitalization. The London Stock Exchange Group, of which Piazza Affari is a part, is firmly in third place behind only the Nyse Euronext USA and the Nasdaq. 

THE VALUE OF THE STOCK EXCHANGE COMPARED TO THE GDP

Furthermore, compared to the GDP, Piazza Affari is the least representative of the main international markets (32%). A value far from the levels of the decade 1998-2007, when the average was 48%, with the peak of 70% reached in 2000.

THE (FEW) POSITIVE NOTES

In any case, positive notes also emerge from the survey by the Mediobanca Research Department. First of all, Borsa Italiana presents itself as a very liquid market. Furthermore, if on average for the decade 2004-2013 the Nasdaq was confirmed to be by far the most active market in terms of trading measured by the turnover index (ratio of trading value/total capitalisation), equal to 5,3 times, Borsa Italiana (1,70) is positioned in second place, doing better than all the other world lists.

Considering the movements of new quotations and delistings over the decade, despite presenting a negative balance (-10,9%), Borsa Italiana does not look bad in comparison with other Western financial markets. The figure, in fact, is in line with the Nyse Euronext Europe (-10,6%) and Madrid (-10,6%).

THE ROE

Furthermore, in terms of Roe, Borsa Italiana remained well above the average of the sample considered (32% against 11%), in the presence of a turnover that remained constant (against an increase in the turnover of the main companies stock market management around 23%).

BOTS HAVE MADE MORE THAN THE MARKET PLACE

In any case, in the last ten years investments in bots have yielded more than those in the stock market. From the end of 2003 to the end of 2013, the average annual performance of a 12-month Treasury bill was 2,3%, against the 1,6% performance of the stock market index (including dividends). Within the performance of the All Share, over the period, however, there was a strong gap between banking stocks and industrial stocks, which recorded an average annual change of -4,7% and +4,7% respectively %. 

In the last decade, savings shares have instead yielded 1,7% per annum. However, if we consider the last 19 years, savings have achieved the most profitable investment on the Stock Exchange: from January 1996 (Base Mediobanca free float indices) to 15 October 2014, the total return was equal to 8,9. XNUMX% annual average.

BANK DIVIDENDS AT THE LOWEST SINCE 1997

In 2014, the banks distributed just one tenth of the dividends paid during the year by all companies listed on the Stock Exchange, reaching the lowest level since 1997. In 2008, however, credit institutions had managed to guarantee almost 36% of all dividends and in 2007 they accounted for almost 40% of all coupons. 

While recovering weight in terms of capitalisation, banks have paid out almost 1,3 billion euros in dividends this year, just over a quarter of the average of the last decade. A value light years away from the exploit paid in 2007 and 2008, when the total dividends of the banks exceeded 11 billion.

Overall, in 2014 the dividends paid by all companies listed in Milan continued the decline that began in the previous two years, reaching the lowest value since 1999: 13 billion euros in total, down by 5% on 2012, one fifth less than in 2010 and more than a third less than the average for the last decade.

The breakdown between sectors benefited industrial stocks (10 billion), as well as, unlike in previous years, insurance companies (1,6 billion).

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