In 2023 l 'global economy showed an overall trend top than expected. The world GDP in fact, it recorded growth of 3,2% despite international tensions, restrictive economic and monetary policies aimed at containing inflationary pressures and greater rigor in budget policies.
The IMF, in World Economic Outlook last April, estimated that global growth will remain at levels substantially equivalent to 2023 also in the two-year period 2024-2025, at 3,2%.
Compared to GDP growth, the international trade situation is less positive. After the strong post-pandemic rebound, the dynamics of 2023 were worse, also due to geo-political tensions, which contributed to a contraction of 0,6% in volume of world exports of goods compared to the previous year's figure. The drop in volumes and prices of raw materials have amplified the loss of value in the trade of goods (-5%).
Ice Report 2023/2024: focus on the Suez Canal crisis
Il Ice Report 2023/2024 underlines the push to shorten global value chains and reorganize towards geographical areas considered "safe" and "friendly", especially by governments. These pressures on international trading, not necessarily dictated by economic opportunities, contribute to the observed slowdown.
The Report dedicates an in-depth analysis to crisis in the Suez Canal, highlighting the effects detected on sea trade and ship transit. 7% of Italian exports, equal to a value of 44 billion euros, are estimated to pass through the Red Sea; while for imports the value rises to 84 billion equal to 14,2% of total purchases. The modification of routes by shipping companies, following armed attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait by the Yemeni rebel group of Houthi, resulted in an increase in transport and insurance costs compared to the period before the attacks. Freights tripled between October 2023 and January 2024 but declined sharply in the following quarter, due to a significant increase in overall cargo capacity.
Despite the turbulence of the international context, Italian GDP recorded a growth rate of 0,9%, an increase for the third consecutive year higher than the Eurozone average and that of France and Germany.
Made in Italy exports will hold up in 2023
In 2023 l 'Made in Italy export of goods reached 626 billion, stable compared to what was recorded in 2022 due to a contraction in export volumes of -5% counterbalanced by the increase in export prices (+5,3%). However, sales abroad grew by +30,4% compared to 2019 (480 billion), that is, before the lockdown and the strong logistical increases caused by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Export growth, however, was +60,5% compared to 2012, when they reached a value of 390 billion.
Italian exports of manufactured goods in 2023 they were confirmed at the same level as 2022 (596 billion), the result of a reduction in volumes against an increase in prices. This derives from opposite trends in the different markets (-2,1% of exports to the EU and +2,3% to non-EU markets). Furthermore, a strengthening of the comparative advantages of the Italian industry is observed: i machinery reconfirms itself as the first sector as a weight on exports (16%) with an increase in value (+8,8%), in addition to means of transport (grown by +10,5%) ed agri-food (+5,7%). Exports of services (137 billion) increased by over 8% in volume and over 12% in value, increasing its global market share.
Export growth was particularly strong in Africa, Middle East, India e Brazil, though Europe e America Northern Italy remain the main outlet markets. And although Italy represents 2,2% of world GDP, in at least 5 macro-categories it boasts a market penetration of more than 5% with peaks of 10%, for example for wine.
