The 2011-2012 Report, drawn up by the ICE Agency with the collaboration of various national bodies, including Bank of Italy, Istat, Sace, Simest and Prometeia, offers an accurate analysis of the current international economic landscape and the position of the Italy in this scenario, also highlighting the prospects for the future trend of the global economy and of our country.
In the description of the international economic context, again this year the terms that frequently recur are "heterogeneity" and "uncertainty": the estimates on the growth of the world economy for 2012 (3,5% according to the IMF; 2,1% according to the WTO) are, in fact, difficult to predict due to the consistent volatility of some essential variables, also highlighting a strong heterogeneity between distinct economic areas. In particular, the Eurozone still faces the greatest difficulties, heavily influenced by issues related to the sovereign debt of some countries and the increase in the prices of some raw materials, especially oil. Emerging countries stand out as driving the world economy again this year, which nonetheless experience a decrease in the average growth rates of the GDP of their economies (+5,7%).
The general contraction of the global economy that characterizes this year is reflected in the estimates that refer to growth in world trade in goods and services, That for the 2012 show a rate of 5,3%, still below what had been the average growth rate of the last two decades (6%). Protagonists on the global economic scenario are affirmed, as in last year, China, the first exporting country at an international level, with a market share of 10,4%, followed by the United States and Germany.
Italy's position in this context, is strongly influenced by the instability that has especially characterized the Euro area, as well as by the difficulties that have been faced, in the field of economic policy, through the implementation of restrictive maneuvers in order to contain the sovereign debt. The adoption of these measures led to a contraction in national demand, the impact of which was especially noted on the level of investments. The role played by exports in the Italian economy, as highlighted by the 2011-2012 Report, is of fundamental importance. During 2011, in fact, the maintenance of a sustained rate of expansion of exports, to which a substantial reduction in imports of goods and services from abroad contributed substantially, made it possible to improve the Italian trade balance, resulting in a reduction of the foreign trade deficit of 24,6 billion euros.
The propensity to export, measured as the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP at constant prices, increased by 28,4%, converging with the average of the major European economies. Another positive note can be identified in the strengthening of trade in non-energy products, which increased in 2011 by an amount of 37 billion euros (15bn more than the previous year).
Of particular relevance are the destinations of Italian exports, which observes an important development of the role covered by non-European countries: in the first five months of 2012, Italian exports recorded a growth of 3,9%, compared to the same period in 2011, supported especially by emerging countries outside the EU (EDA 9,1%), the United States (15,1, 19,8%), Japan (8,1%) and Russia (XNUMX%), to which mainly capital goods and durable consumer goods were exported.
Worthy of note is the contraction of Italian exports to China (-11,8%): this reduction in Italian penetration of the Chinese market must be contextualised by taking into consideration the evolution of the growth model adopted by China, oriented towards development of the national economy based on internal demand, which therefore offers new business opportunities to be exploited in the sectors of consumer and investment goods.
From the point of view of the Regions, from the data relating to the first quarter of 2012, which nonetheless show a positive trend, with an average growth of exports at national level equal to 5,5%, particularly positive results emerge from Sicily (30% ), Tuscany (14%), Puglia (10%) and Campania (7,5%).
As regards the sectors that drive Italian exports, the ICE Report reiterates the relevance of mechanics, however highlighting a substantial increase also in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and metallurgy. The importance of other factors that have a largely positive impact on exports is also highlighted, first of all innovation, which represents a parameter of distinction, both in the mechanical sector and in traditional sectors. For the purpose of a solid recovery, the positioning of companies in the most profitable segments of the global value chains is of fundamental importance. In this regard, the dossier underlines the need to activate public policies to support exports that are able, not only to support companies in the most dynamic foreign markets, but also to promote their dimensional growth and aggregation processes by supply chain.
With the aim of supporting the Italian entrepreneurial system, the ICE Agency, on the occasion of the presentation of the dossier discussed here, also confirmed its commitment to promoting various initiatives, such as international fairs, B2B meetings, seminars, road shows, operators. Among these projects, the most important is theExpo 2012, , with a focus on the food sector as the "vital energy of the planet" (involving so many sectors from agro-food, technology, environment and in particular renewable resources), which will be held in Milan from 1 May to 31 October 2015, over 20 million visitors are expected to attend.
