MESSINA (INTESA): ITALY AT THE TURNING POINT. THE DISTRICTS (+3,2% REVENUES) PUT THE TURBO
“I just returned from a recent meeting with the eighty most important international investors. From this I gained the conviction that, in the eyes of the markets, Italy has finally reached the turning point”. Carlo Messina, managing director of Banca Intesa San Paolo, breaks the delay: finally, the Bel Paese has a great opportunity for development. “International investors – he says – have warmly welcomed the start of the reforms, both those relating to the labor market and that of Popolari. Regardless of the merits of the measures, the feeling of a country once again on the move prevails”, also thanks to the forthcoming Expo 2015. To justify so much optimism, on the occasion of the presentation of the seventh annual report on the economy and finance of industrial districts ( 46.500 companies analysed), several internal and international factors contribute:
a) The combination of the positive elements on the international front (weak euro, slowing oil, drop in rates driven by Quantitative Easing) is worth, as Chief Economist Gregorio De Felice explained, a growth delta of 1,4 points, from -0,4% up to a possible increase in GDP of one point.
b) The analysis of the districts allows us to highlight the fruits of the work, often underground, of these champions of Made in Italy: in 2013/14 their turnover returned to growth (+1%) ahead of the rest of the apparatus industrial.
c) The recovery has meanwhile picked up speed. De Felice goes so far as to predict an average increase in turnover of 3,2% per year in the two-year period 2015/16.
d) Strongly growing case histories stand out in this area, such as the constant growth of patents in the pharma sector. Confirming that Italy can count on widely competitive technology and universities.
e) Several virtuous trends emerge from the test on 12.100 enterprises belonging to 144 industrial districts and 34.300 non-district enterprises. That is to say:
A) The appeal of Italian district companies is growing in the eyes of international investors.
B) The returns to the territories of productions already transferred abroad are multiplying, a flow favored by the request for higher quality. This is the case with the repatriation of Piquadro products from China.
C) There are also new developments regarding the size of companies. In the districts (but not yet in the rest of the industrial fabric) there is a phenomenon of concentration and growth of medium-sized companies to the detriment of smaller and more fragile ones on the front of international markets.
The strategies of Banca Intesa, more than ever the flagship of our domestic credit, fit into this framework. “Intesa – Messina appealed – today capitalizes 49 billion euros, or 80% more than 18 months ago. It is a higher growth than that of our competitors who boast a greater diversification on the markets compared to us, who are more concentrated than others on the domestic market”. It is the confirmation, comments the managing director of the group, that the international investors, who today hold the majority of Intesa, have decided to focus on the Italian recovery. The Ca e' Sass institute, which will make requests for at least 4 billion in the imminent TLTRO launched by the ECB (during the year the request will be around 10 billion) is preparing to inject 2015 billion into the Italian economy in 36 new medium and long-term credit that add up to the 25 (half of which coming from Tltro) disbursed in 2013/14.
In this context, Intesa San Paolo intends to accelerate in asset allocation and private equity. “Because Italian savings deserve triple A”. Through internal growth, with the establishment of precise branches on international financial markets (starting from London) but also, if possible, through external lines. "We were interested in Couts - confirms the banker - but only if they had given us the brand that was not for sale".
Finally, the bad bank which, in truth, does not directly affect the bank which has the strength to deal with suffering on its own. “It's a useful provision but I wouldn't want it to be overloaded with meanings. I believe that the problem of loans is more acute today on the demand side than on the supply side”. An urgent problem because “2015 is the year in which investments will make a difference” .
