The Italian economy has for years been blocked not only by a series of constraints and internal inefficiencies, but also by problems affecting the whole of Europe and indeed we can say the whole world given that the two driving economies of the USA and China are facing minor problems. The 19th report on the global economy and Italy, drawn up by Prof. Mario Deaglio, with the contributions of a large number of economists, political scientists and international geopolitical experts, has an already very eloquent title: "A desperate need for grow".
The report, promoted by the Luigi Einaudi Research Center and sponsored by UBI Banca, was effectively summarized by Prof. Deaglio, highlighting all the difficulties that the world economy is encountering which are leading to a dangerous crisis of mistrust between the various countries and in the tendency of each one to withdraw into his own particularity. However, the report does not overlook the glimmers of recovery that can be glimpsed here and there and which, if well understood and adequately cultivated, could lead the world economy, and the Italian one in particular, out of the doldrums.
The general picture is certainly not reassuring. The United States have certainly recovered from the fall of 2008, but are showing highly problematic signs of structural weakness. In fact, while the total number of employees has returned to pre-crisis levels, the amount of social security contributions is 20% lower, testifying to the fact that work is created above all in the non-specialised tertiary sector and therefore offers wages that are lower than before of the crisis. Furthermore, the population is ageing, internal mobility is decreasing and inequalities are increasing. China, appears poised between the need to make reforms and the need not to question the political structure, with a population that is rapidly aging and which is beginning to claim life and work prospects different from those of its fathers .
In Europe the disease is already evident. Yet this autumn's Eurobarometer survey shows that most Europeans are cautiously optimistic about the continent's prospects, while pessimists who were around 45% two years ago are now down to 38%. The significant exception is Italy, where pessimists outnumber optimists. And the reason is obvious: we are the only large country that is still in recession and where the 2008 crisis has grafted onto a body made fragile due to a lack of growth that started at least 15 years earlier.
The diseases of the big global players cross over and feed off each other. And it is obvious that the weakest organisms are the ones that are suffering the most. However, there are also signs in Italy of a recovery of the will to invest and innovate, as confirmed by the general manager of Banca Commercio&Industria, Mandelli, while Deaglio noted the growing awareness that everyone's commitment must be multiplied, because if we won't be able to make it back to growth now, so it means that sick Italy no longer reacts and we will have to wait who knows how long to be able to try again.
In the first place, Deaglio's report clearly highlights that the ECB is the only one of the large central banks to have reduced its assets in the last two years, thereby reducing the liquidity supplied to the system. The situation is therefore more than ripe for the ECB's budget to grow by at least 1000 billion, and Draghi, who has had many merits so far, must speed up the adoption of other expansive measures of an extraordinary nature. In a more permissive monetary policy framework, Brussels must launch the common investment plan with an impact on Italy of at least 10-15 billion a year.
Deaglio then insists on the need for internal policies aimed at stimulating demand by placing more resources in the hands of young people both with the civil service and with other public systems (but in this case one must be very careful not to create another army of precarious workers like those of the school that is now trying to reabsorb). Alternatively, legislation such as the German one on mini-jobs could also be passed in order to absorb a few young people who do not study and do not work in the private sector.
Then, according to Deaglio, it would be necessary to make domestic investment more attractive, both with the tax authorities and with deregulation measures, and finally it would be necessary to relaunch the building sector, the backbone of the Italian economy which activates many other sectors. But the road will be long. It is clear that structural reforms such as labor reform and the reorganization of institutions are indispensable. In the short term, however, we need to find a way to restart the engine of the Italian economy that has been idle for too long. We need to connect it to an external battery that is however effective, because we have a "desperate" need to restart growth soon and we cannot bear disappointment again. Europe can help us with a weaker exchange rate against the dollar, with a truly expansionary monetary policy, and with a serious investment programme. But we have to do the bulk of it. There are some positive signs. Let's make the best use of them.
